May Refined Nickel Customs Clearance Volume Significantly Declined, Exports Are Expected to Continue Increasing in June [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, China's imports of refined nickel (including unwrought non-alloy nickel with a total nickel and cobalt content ≥99.99% and cobalt ≤0.005%, other unwrought non-alloy nickel, and unwrought nickel alloy) were 8,215 mt in May, up 1.1% MoM but down 21.85% YoY. Among them, imports of other unwrought non-alloy nickel were 6,230 mt, down 34.55% YoY. Additionally, imports of non-alloy nickel powder and flake powder (HS code 75040010) in May were 301.556 mt, down 61% YoY. For nickel briquette, imports in May reached 1,201.54 mt, down 50% YoY. The main sources of refined nickel imports were Russia, Japan, Norway, and Canada.

May recorded net exports of refined nickel. During May, the imports of refined nickel relatively stabilised MoM but decreased YoY. The imported nickel plates this year are mainly Russian nickel. As long-term contracts for Russian nickel are less affected by SHFE/LME nickel price ratio, such orders are relatively stable. In May, refined nickel exports rose due to the widening SHFE/LME nickel price ratio, once exceeding 10,000 yuan/mt. Therefore, some qualified smelters increase nickel plate exports for June. Although nickel futures prices declined entering June, the price gap between the domestic and overseas markets persisted. It is expected that refined nickel customs clearance volume will continue to drop in June and exports will increase.