Wa State Tin Ore Exports Continued to Decline, Maintenance Period for Smelters Approaches

According to an SMM survey, China's tin ore imports continued to decline in May, mainly due to a significant drop in imports from Myanmar and Africa. Although tin ore imports from other countries held stable and those from Australia even increased, the overall imports were still greatly affected. Currently, the authorities of Wa State, Myanmar have not yet given a clear indication of when local tin mines can resume production. Though there have been recent announcements agreeing to the transportation of tin powder from beneficiation plants, future tin ore exports to China are likely to continue to decrease as tin powder inventories gradually deplete. Meanwhile, tin ore imports from African countries such as Nigeria and The Democratic Republic of the Congo also saw a sharp drop, leading to a decline in total tin ore imports from countries other than Myanmar. Imports from Africa are expected to recover in the future.

Additionally, some domestic smelters are about to enter their maintenance period, which may somewhat alleviate the tight supply at the mining end. However, some smelters saw a decline in production due to tight raw material supply, and it is difficult for them to return to early-year levels in the future. According to the latest SMM survey, the operating rate of tin solder producers is expected to further decline compared to May. Most downstream solder producers expected orders to continue to dip slightly in the off-season. SHFE tin prices are more likely to rise rather than fall. Meanwhile, the market needs to closely monitor the overall trend of the non-ferrous metals sector and its leading role in SHFE tin prices.