With Limited Impact of Production Restriction Rumours, Will Steel Prices Rebound this Week?

Last week, ferrous metals prices fluctuated downward. On Monday, rumours of a crude steel production restriction document in Fujian spread in the market, causing a surge in steel prices in the night session, but prices fell back the next day. Later, the rumours emerged in various regions, but the market reaction was tepid. Real estate data was released last week, showing poor performance. Domestic interest rate cut expectations were unmet, leading to a clear downward trend in the market. In the spot market, the falling steel prices and the rainy season in South China inhibited the demand for construction steel, while overall steel demand was slightly released in the latter half of the week.

In the short term, according to the SMM survey, since pig iron output will remain at a high level this week, there is limited room for raw material price adjustments. As for steel, the inventory of the five major types of steel has not yet shown rapid accumulation. As the production restriction will not largely impact the steel in the short term, the price fluctuation is limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range this week. However, a price rebound this week cannot be ruled out.