The "anti-rat race" policy continues to stimulate a rebound in the commodity market.  

[SMM Analysis: Net imports of primary aluminum fell by double digits again in June, with poor transactions amid high aluminum prices during the off-season]

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,871.5/mt overnight, fluctuated upward initially before plunging to $9,858.5/mt, then gradually rebounded to a high of $9,923/mt, finally closing at $9,898/mt, up 0.31%, with trading volume at 13,000 lots and open interest at 266,000 lots.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cast aluminum alloy closed slightly higher overnight, supported by short-term macroeconomic tailwinds] On Wednesday, the price of SMM ADC12 rose by 50 yuan/mt to 20,250 yuan/mt. The recent continuous rise in aluminum prices has driven aluminum scrap prices to generally follow suit, further pushing up the cost of ADC12 and igniting market sentiment for price adjustments. However, actual consumption has shown mediocre performance, with limited transactions. Overall, the support from aluminum scrap costs for secondary aluminum prices has strengthened in the short term, but weak demand coupled with high social inventory will constrain the upside room for prices of secondary aluminum alloys such as ADC12. It is expected that they will maintain a narrow and relatively strong trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Macro Sentiment Drives Significant Movement, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overall, from the macro perspective, domestic policies related to "anti-rat race" competition have driven up industrial metals, and the long-term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged. Overseas, macro tariff easing and increased market attention to interest rate cut expectations. On the fundamental side, influenced by factors such as the rhythm of arrivals, inventory performance has fluctuated, but considering the release of supply increments and the suppression of the off-season consumption, the expectation of inventory buildup remains strong. Recently, capital sentiment has been strongly influenced by macro policies such as "anti-rat race" competition and "high-quality development." It is expected that aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate at highs in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to changes in inventory and capital sentiment.

[SMM Analysis]Overall, in the first half of 2025 (H1), total imports of unwrought aluminum alloy amounted to 542,300 mt, representing an 11.7% decline YoY. Monthly imports were all below 100,000 mt, while exports rebounded slightly YoY.

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 18.116 million mt of bauxite in June 2025, up 3.44% MoM and 36.21% YoY. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative bauxite imports reached 103.4 million mt, up 34% YoY.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,851/mt overnight, fluctuated downward to test the low of $9,841/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center of copper prices moved straight up to probe $9,871/mt, followed by considerable fluctuations before finally closing at $9,867/mt, up 0.74%, with trading volume at 14,000 lots and open interest at 266,000 lots.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: China Imported 77,400 mt of Unwrought Aluminum Alloys in June, with Exports Increasing Slightly MoM] On Monday, the price of SMM ADC12 rose by 100 yuan/mt to 20,200 yuan/mt. The continuous upward trend in aluminum prices drove a general increase in aluminum scrap prices, further pushing up the cost of ADC12. There was a strong willingness to adjust prices in the market, with a general increase of 100-200 yuan/mt. However, actual consumption showed mediocre performance, and transactions were limited. Overall, the support of aluminum scrap costs for secondary aluminum prices strengthened in the short term, but weak demand coupled with high social inventory would constrain the upside room for prices of secondary aluminum alloys such as ADC12. It is expected that they will maintain a narrow and relatively strong trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Favourable macro front affects capital sentiment, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs in the short term] Overall, on the macro front, domestic policies related to "anti-rat race" competition have driven up industrial metals, and the long-term tone of "boosting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged; overseas macro uncertainties still persist. On the fundamental side, influenced by factors such as the rhythm of arrivals, inventory performance has fluctuated, but considering the release of incremental supply and the suppression of the off-season for consumption, the expectation of inventory buildup remains strong. Recently, capital sentiment has been strongly influenced by macro policies such as "anti-rat race" competition and "high-quality development," and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and capital sentiment.