SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (June 13)

The most-traded SHFE 2407 aluminum contract opened at 20,970 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 20,975 yuan/mt and a low of 20,795 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,855 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt, or 0.26%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,541.5/mt, reached a high of $2,581.5/mt, a low of $2,520/mt, and closed at $2,569/mt, up $25/mt, or 0.98%.

Summary: On the macro level, US Fed interest rate cut expectations increased again, but the timing remains uncertain. On the fundamentals, the arrival of the off-season for consumption together with increasing overseas market frictions led to a decline in orders for aluminum processing enterprises, and the domestic aluminum market supply and demand relationship is gradually weakening. In the short term, aluminum prices are under pressure, and are expected to hover around a high level.