LiCarbonate Daily - June 11

Over the next decade (2026-2035), the combined market share of the three traditional major lithium producers Australia, China and Chile is expected to keep declining as emerging suppliers scale up, with Zimbabwe and Argentina identified as the key sources of new supply. Zimbabwe, in particular, is likely to lead a new round of African lithium expansion, according to a latest research report. Strong H1 momentum, supported by storage demand. China's battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price stood at around 153,950 yuan/mt (approx. USD 21,500/mt) on August 17, after a rally of more than 130% from the June 2025 low of 58,400 yuan/mt. The 2026 forecast for China lithium carbonate has been revised up to USD 20,100/t and lithium hydroxide monohydrate to USD 19,600/t, reflecting that H1 momentum. Prices are expected to ease in H2 as smelter maintenance ends and supply returns, but storage demand is limiting the downside market balances now point to month-on-month destocking through H2 2026, with some analysts projecting the year's price peak in late Q3/early Q4. From ore exporter to processor enforced by policy. Zimbabwe’s rise is no longer just a forecast. On February 25, 2026, Zimbabwe's mining ministry banned all exports of lithium raw ore and concentrates with immediate effect, forcing miners to build local processing capacity. Zimbabwe's output was expected to reach ~200,000 t LCE in 2026 (up over 15% year on year), equal to ~10% of global primary lithium supply and ~17% of global spodumene supply before the ban; the restriction is estimated to affect around 12,000 t LCE of monthly supply. Key projects include: 1) Huayou Cobalt's Arcadia ~70,000-80,000 t LCE of mine output expected in 2026, with its 50,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant commissioned in Q1 2026 and now ramping up; 2) Sinomine's Bikita ~60,000-70,000 t LCE expected in 2026, with a 30,000 t/yr lithium sulphate plant slated for 2027; 3) Chengxin's Sabi Star (~35,000 t LCE) and Yahua's Kamativi (~50,000 t LCE) rounding out a Chinese-invested project portfolio totaling roughly 230,000 t LCE. 4) In 2025, Zimbabwe shipped over 1.2 million tonnes of spodumene to China about 15% of China's total imports making it a supply source Beijing's supply chain cannot easily replace. 2026 is the last investment peak of this cycle global lithium supply is projected to rise ~30% year on year to over 2.1 million t LCE in 2026, concentrated in China and Africa (Africa alone adding ~140,000 t to reach ~380,000 t LCE). Chinese output hit 970,000 t of lithium carbonate in 2025, with new additions this year from Qinghai/Tibet salt lakes, Sichuan spodumene and Jianxiawo's expected restart in H2. Australia shipped 158,000 t of spodumene to China in the week of August 10-16 alone. But few new projects are lined up beyond 2027 a key reason sentiment has flipped from glut to deficit: Morgan Stanley now forecasts an 80,000 t LCE global deficit for 2026, UBS sees a 22,000 t shortfall, versus a 61,000 t surplus in 2025. EVs slow, storage takes the wheel. Global lithium demand growth is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2026 (from 18.5% in 2025), with passenger EV sales growth falling to 3.9% (vs 22.8% in 2025 and 24% in 2024) as China's trade-in subsidies end and the US IRA rollback bites. Energy storage is now the core demand pillar: storage-sector lithium demand is forecast to jump ~55-74% in 2026, lifting its share of total lithium demand from 23% to ~31%. LFP batteries account for over 90% of battery storage applications and more than half of global EV battery installations; China's LFP cell makers reported hot August orders with output up ~5% month on month. China's NEV penetration hit 58.5% in June above 50% for the third straight month. Battery manufacturing investment in China grew 23% in January-July 2026. Risks. Lithium remains in a "tug-of-war" between supply-release concerns and storage-driven demand support, with risks skewed to the downside: a sustained price recovery could trigger rapid restarts (curtailed capacity covering 750,000+ t of concentrate sits near a ~USD 1,200/t restart cost line), sodium-ion substitution becomes economic if cell prices stay above ~0.4 yuan/Wh, and rising energy costs plus a potential sulfur shortage could squeeze miners' margins. Longer term, battery chemistry innovation and recycling could cut lithium intensity and expand secondary supply reshaping the opportunity window for emerging producers like Zimbabwe. SMM View: Zimbabwe's February export ban has turned the "move down the value chain" story from intention into policy reality Chinese invested projects at Arcadia and Bikita are now the country's only guaranteed export channels via lithium sulphate, and the roughly 12,000 t LCE/month of disrupted supply was a direct catalyst in this year's price rally above 150,000 yuan/mt. The report's core thesis a declining share for Australia, China and Chile, with Africa gaining is being validated in real time, Africa adds ~140,000 t LCE of supply in 2026, the largest increment after China. But Zimbabwe's ramp-up pace, its ability to keep sulphate exports flowing, and downstream pricing power remain the key variables determining whether it can fully deliver on its market-share ambitions

Mainland Chinese lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide monohydrate average price forecasts for 2026 have been revised up to $20,100/t and $19,600/t respectively, reflecting H1 price strength. Prices are expected to soften in H2, but robust energy storage demand should limit downside, with uncertainty over CATL's Jianxiawo mine restart also capping bearish sentiment. Global lithium demand growth is projected to slow to 5.8% y/y in 2026 from 18.5% in 2025, tracking a deceleration in global passenger EV sales growth (BEV+PHEV) to 3.9% y/y from 22.8% in 2025. China remains the core demand driver: domestic NEV sales rose 23.6% y/y to 1.6 million units in June, with NEV penetration holding at a record 58.5% of new-vehicle sales for a third straight month as incentive withdrawal and structural pressures push the market into a more mature growth phase. Elevated fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict are lending incremental support to electrified and hybrid powertrain demand. On supply, global lithium output is forecast to grow 13.2% y/y in 2026, led by Australia and China, with the price recovery supporting restarts of higher-cost Australian capacity despite cost pressure from energy prices and a potential sulphur shortage. The combined share of the top three producers Australia, China, and Chile is expected to decline through 2035 as Argentina and Zimbabwe ramp up output, with Zimbabwe seen as a key driver of African lithium mine development in the coming years. Carbonate's premium over hydroxide is expected to persist on continued LFP adoption, which now accounts for over half of global EV battery installations and more than 90% of battery energy storage capacity. Longer term, lithium-free/reduced-lithium battery chemistries and advances in battery recycling represent structural downside risks to price. SMM View: The revision confirms H1 price resilience rather than a shift in underlying fundamentals current prices remain viewed as elevated relative to fundamentals, with H2 risk skewed to the downside. For African supply, Zimbabwe's role in the coming decade's shift away from the traditional top three producers aligns with its ongoing sulphate/hydroxide integration build-out; continued execution would further strengthen Africa's position in the global lithium supply structure.

Nasarawa State's $2M supplementary agreement with Diamond New Energy secures continued lithium ore supply from the state's mining block to the Endo lithium refinery (~3 million t/yr, 6,000 t/d West Africa's largest lithium processing facility). A concurrent deed transferred mining rights across 3.5 cadastral units at Endo from Nasarawa Mining Company to Ganfeng Lithium, giving Ganfeng direct control over upstream spodumene supply, reducing reliance on third-party/artisanal ore, and shortening the ore-to-refinery logistics chain to support more stable lithium salt output volumes. SMM View: The deal's real significance is feedstock security for lithium conversion capacity, not the payment itself. Consolidating spodumene mining rights under the refinery operator lowers ore-supply volatility and lends more predictability to output of lithium concentrate and downstream salts. This mirrors Ganfeng's vertically integrated approach at Goulamina in Mali, further embedding Chinese-controlled, mine-to-refinery lithium supply chains in West Africa and adding to the region's growing processed lithium volumes destined for the Chinese market.