[SMM Tin Midday Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuates around the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold, with mine-end supply remaining generally tight] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued its pattern of fluctuating at highs. The opening price was reported at 265,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 264,860 yuan/mt. In the morning session, it fluctuated rangebound around the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold, with market trading activity being moderately weak. Judging from recent trends, tin prices have been consolidating within the range of 263,000-266,000 yuan/mt since mid-May, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war over the logic of "short-term tight balance versus easing in the long term.

[SMM Analysis: Tin Ore Imports Remained Low in April, with Persistent Supply Pressure on the Domestic Smelting Side] In April, domestic tin ore imports stood at 9,800 mt (equivalent to approximately 4,336 mt in metal content), up 18.48% MoM and down 4.22% YoY, representing an increase of 519 mt in metal content compared to March (which was equivalent to 3,817 mt in metal content). The cumulative imports from January to April reached 367,000 mt, down 47.98% YoY. In April, domestic tin ingot imports amounted to 1,128 mt, down 46.31% MoM and up 53.68% YoY. The cumulative imports from January to April totaled 7,432 mt, up 12.16% YoY...

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,500.5/mt. After fluctuating higher in early trading, it pulled back and touched a low of $9,495/mt.

The "trade-in" policy continues to drive momentum, with the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuating at highs after a slight opening higher in the night session. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Xiaomi's strategic new product launch event is scheduled for May 22, where it will unveil the "Xuanjie O1," which adopts the second-generation 3nm process technology. (Bullish ★) (2) Jensen Huang: NVIDIA will launch its next-generation GB300 AI system in Q3. It will build an AI supercomputer in Taiwan, China, and NVIDIA's DGX Spark has already entered full production. (Bullish ★) (3) With the continuous driving momentum of the "trade-in" policy, coupled with automakers' new product launches and increased self-funded sales promotions, the consumer vitality in the automotive market has significantly improved. (Bullish ★) (4) US Fed - Bostic: The number of interest rate cuts this year will depend on how things unfold, and the details of tariffs will be crucial. He leans towards only one interest rate cut this year, as it takes time to understand the impact of tariffs. Williams: Policy is somewhat restrictive and in good shape. Recent economic data has been very positive, and the key word for the economy is uncertainty. Vice Chair Jefferson: The US Fed's policy is in a very good state. We are facing risks on both sides of our dual mandate.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: No tin ore imports from Myanmar's Wa region to China in May, further widening the raw material deficit in the smelting sector] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) remained in the doldrums throughout the day. It opened lower at 263,950 yuan/mt in the morning session. Subsequently, under the influence of macro sentiment and technical pressure, prices continued to face downward pressure, eventually closing at 264,860 yuan/mt, down 0.22% from the previous trading day. The intraday trading range was 263,470-265,480 yuan/mt, with open interest shrinking to 28,700 lots. Market trading activity was moderately weak, as bulls and bears continued to grapple over the logic of "weak reality versus strong expectations"...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 19 May, 2025

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract continues to fluctuate at highs, with smelters holding firm on prices and sluggish spot cargo transactions] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs. After a slight lower opening in the morning session, it fluctuated rangebound around 265,000 yuan/mt. It closed at 264,760 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.26% from the previous trading day, with open interest slightly decreasing to 26,100 lots. Market trading activity was moderately weak, with bulls and bears continuing to grapple over the logic of "tight balance in the short term vs. easing in the long term.

On Friday evening, LME copper opened at $9,519/mt, initially touching a high of $9,541.5/mt before slightly pulling back and then continuing to rise.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last week, SHFE tin prices fluctuated considerably before hovering at highs, with the overall tin market showing a pattern of weak supply and demand.] Last week's SHFE tin price trend: Fluctuated considerably before hovering at highs. Prices jumped initially and then pulled back at the beginning of the week, buoyed by positive expectations for the China-US economic and trade negotiations. However, prices subsequently pulled back after the initial surge and oscillated around 260,000 yuan/mt due to weak US economic data (GDP contraction on a QoQ basis, elevated PCE inflation) and a stronger US dollar. During the night session on May 13, SHFE tin closed at 264,570 yuan/mt, up 1.33%, with market sentiment briefly supported by favourable macro front. Prices fluctuated upward mid-week, primarily due to easing market concerns over cooling US inflation in April, coupled with expectations of tight ore supply. On May 15, prices hovered at highs, with the most-traded contract closing at 265,210 yuan/mt, down 0.21%, while spot quotes rose to 266,750 yuan/mt, reflecting smelters' refusal to budge on prices. Prices adjusted within a narrow range over the weekend, maintaining an overall pattern of high-level fluctuations, but were significantly capped by the 60-day moving average (approximately 265,000 yuan). Spot market transaction situation: High prices suppressed demand, and trading gradually slowed down. Early in the week: Smelters held firm on prices and were reluctant to sell, while traders actively closed deals at fixed prices. Some downstream enterprises restocked at lower prices, with transactions concentrated in the 259,000-263,000 yuan/mt range. From mid-week to the weekend: After prices rose, downstream enterprises became more cautious, only making just-in-time procurement. Transaction volumes shrank to the 264,000-266,000 yuan/mt range, and market trading became increasingly sluggish. ...