China April overseas aluminum output and May forecast

According to SMM statistics, overseas aluminium output was 2.42 million mt in April (30 days), up 0.8% YoY. The overseas average aluminum production capacity utilization rate was 86.4% in April, up 0.4% MoM and 1.1% YoY. The overseas aluminum output totalled 9.743 million mt in the first 4 months of 2024, up 0.9% YoY.

By region, production in North America fell by 3.3% YoY in April. The New Madrid plant in the US completely stopped production in March 2024; Alcoa's Warrick smelter announced at the end of 2023 that it would restart a production line with capacity of 54,000 mt. SMM estimated that the plant's capacity utilization rate recovered to around 75% in April 2024.

In South America, local production rose by 4.7% YoY to 126,000 mt as Alcoa's Alumar plant has been restarting slowly since April 2022. SMM estimated that the plant's capacity utilization rate had recovered to around 70% by the end of April.

Russia's total aluminum production increased by 3.1% YoY to 340,000 mt due to the restart of UC RUSAL's Taishet plant. According to SMM statistics, the Taishet plant produced about 18,000 mt in April, with a capacity utilization rate of about 52%.

In Europe excluding Russia, production rose by 0.2% MoM to 296,000 mt due to the shutdown of the Neuss plant in Germany. The other three smelters in Essen, Hamburg and Voerde reduced production since 2021 due to factors such as rising energy costs, and by the end of 2023, their operating efficiency only stood at 30%. The above three smelters began to slowly resume production in April 2024. In addition, the production resumption at San Ciprian plant in Spain still faced difficulties, and the operating efficiency only stood at 6%. Alcoa had launched a potential sale process in the first quarter and the bidding process was expected to be completed by June 2024.

Significant output increase occurred in Asia, especially in Indonesia. The smelter of Indonesia Huaqing Aluminum was put into operation in 2023, and the existing capacity stood at 500,000 mt in 2024. SMM estimated that this smelter’s production in April was about 20,000 mt, with capacity utilization rate of 50%.

Smelters in other regions maintained steady operation. However, India's aluminum output rose by 1.8% YoY to 338,000 mt in April.