[SMM Tin Midday Review: Daytime Session Sees Narrowed Price Fluctuation and Pullback, Spot Market Remains Sluggish in Overall Trading]​​ This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) fluctuated downward slightly, opening at 264,870 yuan/mt, up 0.31% from yesterday's closing price of 264,050 yuan/mt. The price fluctuation range narrowed in the morning session, with a high of 266,400 yuan/mt and a low of 264,300 yuan/mt. It closed at 264,600 yuan/mt at midday, up slightly by 0.06%. Market trading remained sluggish, with open interest slightly decreasing to 13,300 lots. Escalating Trade Frictions​​: The Trump administration threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, raising expectations of increased global trade costs and suppressing risk appetite. The VIX index climbed to a high level, with capital accelerating its flow into safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries.

China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co., Ltd. (CAERI) and Yingwang Sign Strategic Cooperation Agreement; Night Session SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA): From January to April, China's automobile exports reached 2.16 million units, with a YoY growth rate of 15%. (Bullish ★) (2) CAERI and Yingwang signed a strategic cooperation agreement, covering areas such as think tank construction and digital model development. (Bullish ★) (3) Moody's maintains China's sovereign credit rating; Ministry of Finance: A positive reflection of the country's promising economic outlook. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① The fourth round of tariff negotiations between Japan and the US is scheduled to take place on the 30th. The Japanese government plans to utilize 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. ② EU: In negotiations with the US, the EU's proposal of "zero tariffs for zero tariffs" remains on the table; it is reported that the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. ③ South Africa proposes to purchase US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to reach a trade agreement. (Neutral)

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Traditional Consumption Sectors Under Pressure, Longs and Shorts Continue to Battle Around the 264,000 yuan/mt Threshold] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) maintained a volatile pattern, opening at 264,600 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday's closing price. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, with a high of 265,800 yuan/mt and a low of 263,600 yuan/mt. It closed at 263,860 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.31%. Market trading was sluggish, with longs and shorts continuing to battle around the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold. Pressure on Traditional Sectors: Demand for solder in electronics, home appliances, and other sectors was suppressed by high tin prices and Sino-US trade frictions. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and spot transactions continued to follow the pattern of "high backwardation and low trading volume." Support from New Energy Sectors: Demand for PV welding strips and NEVs maintained high growth rates, but short-term increases were insufficient to offset the weakness in traditional consumption.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,570.5/mt. After initial fluctuations, it trended lower, hitting a low of $9,478.0/mt during the session.

Trump Indicates Resumption of 90-Day Trade Negotiation Window with EU; Spot Market Transactions Remain Sluggish, Falling Short of Expectations [SMM Tin Morning News] (1) US chip giant NVIDIA is reportedly set to launch an artificial intelligence (AI) chip based on the Blackwell architecture for the Chinese market, with a selling price significantly lower than its previous H20 chip. Production is expected to commence as early as June. (Bullish ★) (2) US President Trump stated locally on Friday that the tariff threats he issued to Apple earlier that day would also target other device manufacturers, including Samsung Electronics, in an effort to encourage these companies to relocate their manufacturing operations to the US. (Bullish ★) (3) TSMC (TSM.N) warned that the proposed US tariff hikes on foreign-made chips could jeopardize its investment of up to $165 billion in advanced semiconductor manufacturing facilities in Arizona. (4) Tariffs - ① Trump Urges EU to Make Unilateral Concessions, While EU Insists on "Reciprocity Principle". ② Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba held a 45-minute phone conversation with Trump, during which Trump made no remarks on tariffs, while Ishiba reiterated Japan's request for the US to lift tariffs.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Domestic tin market generally shows a pattern of weak supply and demand; tin prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound] On the international macro front, the US GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ in Q1, with core PCE inflation rising to 3.5%, consumer confidence falling to a historic low, and the manufacturing PMI pulling back to 48.7, indicating increased downward pressure on the economy. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, emphasizing the heightened risks of inflation and rising unemployment. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, suppressing the overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector. Domestically, the tin ore market generally shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. In terms of supply, refined tin production is expected to decline MoM in May, but the spot tin market will still face inventory tightness in the short term. The Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo resumed production in phases, with the first batch of tin concentrates shipped on May 9. It is expected to enter the smelting process in June, making it difficult to alleviate the tight supply situation in the short term. On the demand side, no significant improvement has been observed so far. High tin ingot prices have led to sluggish restocking willingness in the electronics/home appliance industries, causing blockages in industry chain transmission and further reducing the circulation of scrap. The operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces remained low, with a combined operating rate of 56.85%. TCs were at historic lows, putting pressure on smelting profits. Looking ahead, it is expected that before any significant favourable or unfavourable macro factors emerge, tin prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound. Investors need to closely monitor the progress of Sino-US economic and trade talks, the trend of the US dollar, and changes in domestic policies, and operate cautiously...

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Weak Supply and Demand Persist, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Fluctuate Rangebound] This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate rangebound. It opened at 264,780 yuan/mt, unchanged from yesterday's closing price. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, with a high of 265,400 yuan/mt and a low of 263,800 yuan/mt. It closed at 264,230 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.62%. Market trading remained sluggish, with open interest further shrinking to 22,000 lots. Both long and short sides continued to be locked in a stalemate near 264,000 yuan/mt.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,463.5/mt, dipping to a low of $9,433.5/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $9,519.5/mt near the close, ultimately closing at $9,519.5/mt, up 0.34%.

SHFE tin prices remained rangebound at low levels during the night session, with spot market transactions remaining sluggish and falling short of expectations. [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Macro: (1) China Passenger Car Association: It is forecasted that retail sales of narrowly-defined passenger vehicles in May will reach 1.85 million units, with 980,000 units being new energy vehicles (bullish ★). (2) Xiaomi Motors: Cumulative deliveries are expected to reach 258,000 units by 2025, with over 28,000 units delivered in April (bullish ★). (3) Producers such as TSMC have made recommendations to the US Department of Commerce, proposing exemptions for semiconductor-related tariffs (bullish ★). (4) Tariffs - ① Japan's Minister for Economic Revitalization: Will visit the US from Friday to Sunday this week for tariff negotiations. ② White House advisor Milan: Currently, there is no work being conducted on secret negotiations regarding currency issues (neutral).

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Short-term Raw Material Shortfall Still Constrains Domestic Smelting Capacity, Most-traded SHFE Tin Contract Continues to Stay in the Doldrums]​​Ore Supply Tightness Persists​​: Domestic tin ore imports from January to April plummeted by 47.98% YoY. The progress of production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region has been slow, with the approval of new licenses and the reconstruction of infrastructure yet to be completed. Incremental supply is expected to be released only in H2. Although the Bisie mine in the DRC has resumed production in phases, the tin concentrates from the first batch of exports in May will only enter the smelting process in June-July. The short-term raw material shortfall still constrains domestic smelting capacity.......