[SMM Tin Midday Review: US Tariff Policy Uncertainty Limits Upside Room, SHFE Tin Prices Show Weak Upward Momentum] As of midday today, the most-traded SHFE tin SN2508 contract was quoted at 264,880 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.24% from the settlement price of the previous trading day, with an intraday fluctuation range of 264,000-265,800 yuan/mt. Market trading was sluggish, and open interest decreased to 26,200 lots, reflecting a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors.

SHFE tin prices remained fluctuating rangebound, and downstream enterprises began to adopt a wait-and-see attitude [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) The "White Paper on Automotive Intelligent Driving Technology and Industrial Development," jointly drafted by the China Automotive Technology & Research Center, Tsinghua University, and Huawei, was officially released. (Bullish ★) (2) From January to June 2025, the arithmetic average price reduction for new energy vehicle models that underwent price cuts reached 23,000 yuan, with a price reduction rate of 12%. In June, the arithmetic average price reduction for new energy vehicle models that underwent price cuts reached 15,000 yuan, with a price reduction rate of 10.4%, a relatively low level. (3) Tariffs - ① Trump: Tariffs will be imposed starting August 1st, with no extensions granted. A 50% tariff will be imposed on imported copper. Drug tariffs may reach as high as 200%, but pharmaceutical manufacturers will be given 18 months to adjust. Tariffs on semiconductors will be announced soon. It may take two days before sending tariff letters to the EU.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: SHFE tin's intraday price fluctuation range narrowed as bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war near 265,000 yuan/mt] On July 8, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2508 contract exhibited a trend of fluctuating downward rangebound. The opening price was reported at 263,520 yuan/mt, with the intraday high reaching 266,090 yuan/mt and the low dipping to 262,720 yuan/mt. It eventually closed at 265,480 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan from the previous trading day, representing a decline of 0.08%. Trading volume for the day was 71,334 lots, with open interest decreasing by 2,017 lots to 26,245 lots, indicating a rise in cautious sentiment among market participants. From a technical perspective, the most-traded SHFE tin contract has broken below the 20-day moving average support, reverting to the previous trading range (260,000-268,000 yuan/mt). The intraday price fluctuation range narrowed, with bulls and bears engaging in a tug-of-war near 265,000 yuan/mt, reflecting the market's conflicting mindset amid macro uncertainties and fundamental factors.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Headwinds and Off-Season Inventory Buildup Pressure Tin Prices Downward] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) rebounded slightly in the morning session today, closing at around 264,800 yuan/mt at midday, dropping slightly by 0.32%, breaking below the 20-day moving average support, and returning to the midpoint of the 265,000-270,000 yuan/mt oscillation range. LME Tin Contract: Overnight, LME tin closed at $33,350/mt, up 0.27%; it remained in the doldrums during the Asian session today, trading within the $33,000-33,500/mt range.

SHFE tin prices remained rangebound at low levels, with trading activity heating up in the spot market [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) From January to June 2025, the arithmetic average price reduction of new energy vehicle models that underwent price cuts reached 23,000 yuan, with a price reduction rate of 12%. In June, the arithmetic average price reduction of new energy vehicle models that underwent price cuts reached 15,000 yuan, with a price reduction rate of 10.4%, a relatively low level. (Bullish ★) (2) Recently, the Shanghai Stock Exchange held the 5th session of the 2nd season of the "Science and Technology Innovation Board New Quality Productive Forces Industry Salon" titled "Optical Chips: China's New 'Spark' in Computing Power". It invited four leading optical chip companies, namely Taclink, Everbright Optoelectronics, Shijia Photonics, and Yuanjie Technology, along with multiple securities firms, fund management companies, and other institutions to gather and engage in in-depth discussions, aiming to propel China's optical chip industry to a higher level. (3) US President Trump stated that the effective date for US tariffs is August 1st, but he is open to postponing them if countries make suggestions. When asked if the deadline is definite, Trump said, "I'd say yes, but I'm not 100% sure. If they call and say they want to handle it differently, we'll accept that." Starting Monday, Trump informed trading partners, including Japan and South Korea, that the US would significantly raise tariffs starting from August 1st, marking a new phase in the trade war he initiated earlier this year.

[SMM Commentary on SHFE Tin: SHFE tin prices fluctuated downward during the day, stimulating downstream enterprises to begin restocking and purchasing] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closing price: 263,520 yuan/mt, down 5,460 yuan (a 2.03% decline) in a single day. Intraday fluctuations: opened at 267,250 yuan, peaked at 268,100 yuan, and bottomed out at 262,520 yuan, showing a fluctuating downward trend. Open interest and trading volume: open interest decreased by 2,457 lots to 28,262 lots, with a trading volume of 84,417 lots, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among funds.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Under Pressure amid Volatility, LME Tin Awaits Macro Breakthrough] Prominent Mine-End Contradictions: The progress of tin ore production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region has been slow. Coupled with Thailand's ban on Myanmar's transit transportation, the import channels for tin ore have been blocked. It is estimated that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500-1,000 mt in June. Persistent Production Cuts at the Smelting End: Raw material inventories at smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are generally insufficient for 30 days. Some enterprises have undergone maintenance or implemented gradient production cuts, leading to a tightening of the refined tin supply margin.

Orders for PV solder and electronics companies shrink; SHFE tin prices remain fluctuating rangebound [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) According to the Wall Street Journal, sources said that TSMC will prioritize investment in the US to address the threat of chip tariffs, and will delay the start of construction of its second chip factory in Japan. (Bearish ★) (2) Some EU automakers and governments are pushing for an agreement with the US to achieve tariff reductions, while the EU increases its investments in the US. The EU must reach a trade arrangement with Trump by July 9th, otherwise tariffs on nearly all EU goods exported to the US will jump to 50%. (3) India has proposed imposing retaliatory tariffs on US tariffs imposed on the automotive industry under the guise of safeguard measures, in accordance with World Trade Organization (WTO) norms. A WTO notification circulated at India's request stated: "The proposed suspension of concessions or other obligations will increase tariffs on specific products originating in the US." India has notified the WTO Council for Trade in Goods of its proposal to suspend concessions and other obligations under certain WTO provisions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: US Congress Approves Comprehensive Tax and Budget Legislation, Tin Prices Expected to Hover at Highs] On the international macro front, the US Congress has approved comprehensive tax and budget legislation, with the electric vehicle (EV) tax credit set to expire on September 30, which will have a certain impact on the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that trade agreements would be signed intensively before July 9, potentially bringing uncertainty to the global trade environment. Domestically, the overall supply of tin ore in the market is tightening, with continuous supply constraints in major producing areas such as Yunnan. Some smelters plan to halt production for maintenance or slightly cut production. On the demand side, after the installation rush in the PV industry ends, orders decline. The electronics industry has entered the off-season, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment among end-users, with only just-in-time procurement being maintained. Demand in other sectors, such as tinplate and chemicals, remains stable. The spot market has seen sluggish transactions, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards current prices. Social inventory has experienced a slight buildup, and the inventory buildup pressure is expected to continue in the short term. Overall, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at highs next week. Investors should pay close attention to the progress of production resumptions in Myanmar, seasonal recovery of end-use demand, and changes in macro policies, and operate cautiously. ...