Lithium Carbonate Price Review & Forecast

Lithium ore

Lepidolite prices increased slightly in the week ending March 28 due to limited supply following subdued mining in Jiangxi. With environmental checks easing, Jiangxi smelters are preparing to restart operations. Smelters with low lepidolite stocks are beginning to cautiously restock, leading to a slight price rise.

Domestic spodumene concentrate prices remained stable in the week ending March 28, while international prices increased due to tenders from Albemarle and Sigma in Brazil set higher lithium ore prices than spot rates, leading overseas miners to seek new pricing strategies, aiming to decouple ore prices from domestic lithium salt levels. Overseas mining companies remain keen to push prices up, with formula-based pricing for off-take agreements hovering around $1,100. Domestic spodumene ore demand decreased slightly, but a spot shortage kept prices from falling. Major lithium salt producers still control most of the stock, and some spot holders are opting for lithium carbonate tolling over selling the ore due to slim profits. Albemarle's tender pricing supports ore holders' firm pricing, keeping spot prices high with fewer transactions. Despite a recent dip in lithium salt prices, spodumene ore prices are likely to remain stable for now.

Lithium carbonate

Lithium carbonate prices fell in the week ending March 28. Most smelters had gradually returned to normal production in early March after completing maintenance, allowing the weekly output to recover to levels seen around November 2023. Some smelters adopted a less firm pricing stance since production is now profitable in theory. Chilean exports have recently arrived in China, with more on the way. These have increased supply in the domestic spot market and the supply crunch could be fundamentally solved in the future, weighing down spot prices, and future price outlook remains bearish. Some smelters refused to compromise on prices, though. While the recent lithium ore price hikes by miners is not quite welcomed by most smelters, the bidding results of Albemarle and some other miners indicate that expensive ore is still acceptable to some buyers, thus the support to lithium carbonate prices remains. We expect smaller volatility in lithium carbonate prices going forward.

Lithium hydroxide

Lithium hydroxide prices fell modestly in the week ending March 28. Despite a decline in lithium carbonate prices, smelter prices have not broadly decreased, with current quotes between 97,000-100,000 yuan/mt. Cathode producers are reducing orders and purchasing based on immediate needs, slightly decreasing the price

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