According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), global copper reserves were 1 billion tons in 2023. Countries rich in copper resources mainly include Chile (190 million tons), Australia (100 million tons), Peru (120 million tons), and Russia (80 million tons), Mexico (53 million tons) and the United States (50 million tons), etc. In terms of output, global copper output from ore in 2023 was 22 million tons. The main copper-producing countries were Chile (5 million tons), Peru (2.6 million tons), China (1.7 million tons), and the United States (1.1 million tons).
According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global refined copper production in 2023 was 27.6261 million tons, consumption was 27.6919 million tons, and there was a supply shortage of 65,800 tons.
According to a report released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the global refined copper market was in short supply of 87,000 tons in 2023, compared with a supply shortage of 434,000 tons in 2022.
1. Chile: Copper production hits 15-year low in 2023
According to the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco), Chilean copper production fell by 0.5% to 5.33 million tons in 2023, the lowest level since 2008, due to severe mining conditions, lower ore grades, water shortages, and delays in major investment projects.
The output of Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, fell 8.4% to 1.42 million tons, the lowest level in 25 years. A report released by Anglo American showed that the company's copper production in China was 507,200 tons in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, especially in the fourth quarter of last year, when the company's copper production in China fell by 16%.
However, Cochilco predicts that copper production is expected to recover quickly and reach a record high by 2025. Chilean copper production will increase by 5.7% to 5.636 million tons in 2024, and output will increase by 6.4% to nearly 6 million tons in 2025. The increase will mainly come from the output of Teck's new QB2 mine, which was put into production at the end of 2023 and is planned to produce 285,000-315,000 tons of copper per year during 2024-2026.
2. Democratic Republic of Congo became the world’s second largest copper producer
A report from the Central Bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo shows that Congo's copper production in 2023 was 2.84 million tons, surpassing Peru's 2.76 million tons, becoming the world's second largest copper producer, but Congo still lagged behind in exports in Peru.
Over the past five years, copper production in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased dramatically, with copper production in 2023 increasing by 1.62 million tons compared to 2018.
3. Peru: Copper production hits record high in 2023
The Peruvian Ministry of Mines and Energy stated that Peruvian copper production was 2.76 million tons in 2023, a record high, and 2.44 million tons in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Peruvian copper exports in 2023 were 2.95 million tons, with exports exceeding annual production due to sales of previous years' inventories.
The main reason for the increase in Peru's copper mine production is the full resumption of production at the Las Bambas copper mine in 2023, and the increase in production at the Anglo American Group's Quellaveco copper mine in the Moquegua region, which accounts for 11.6% of Peru's copper production, making it the world's fourth largest copper mine.
In early March this year, Peruvian Energy and Mining Minister Romulo Mucho predicted that Peruvian copper production would increase to 3 million tons in 2024.
Mucho said the government is working with Chinese mining company Minmetals Group (MMG) to reach an agreement with local communities opposed to the chalocbamba project at Las Bambas copper mine, and that the expansion of the project could help the mine eventually increase annual output to about 400,000 tons.
Workers at the Las Bambas copper mine, one of Peru's largest copper mines, also went on strike. Surrounding indigenous communities blocked roads leading to the mine, demanding improved profit sharing and transportation conditions.
MMG stated that Las Bambas copper production in 2023 was 302,000 tons, and copper production is expected to be 280,000-320,000 tons in 2024.
4. China: China’s copper output fell by 6.6% in 2023
According to SMM statistics, China's copper concentrate output was 1.83 million tons in metal content in 2023, a decrease of 6.6% from 1.96 million tons in metal content in 2022. The decline in output is mainly due to factors such as the aging of domestic copper mines, declining copper grades, reduced output, and the suspension of production of many small private copper mines due to environmental protection. The data that can be clearly seen are that output at the China Gold’s Jiama Copper Gold Polymetallic Mine decreased by more than 40,000 tons and at Western Mining decreased by 13,000 tons, with a total reduction of 50,000 to 60,000 tons. SMM expects China's copper concentrate output to be 1.91 million tons in 2024.
5. United States: Copper production dropped by 130,000 tons in 2023
According to USGS data, the copper output of U.S. mines in 2023 was approximately 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons from 2022. The three largest projects in the United States: Morenci, Bingham Canyon, and Safford constitute the largest reduction, with a decrease of 38,000 tons and 28,000 tons and 18,000 tons, respectively, with a total reduction of 84,000 tons.
These 12 projects accounted for more than 90% of U.S. copper production.
The main reasons for the decline in the production of Morenci and Safford are: declining grade, and major rainfall events at the end of 2022 affected the production of Morenci.
The decline in Bingham Canyon production may be due to a decline in grade or fluctuations in the amount of mined ore. It is a huge open-pit porphyry copper mine (currently switches into underground mining). Although the current annual output is only a few hundred thousand tons, it could reach around 300,000 tons during its peak period around 2000, and it has continued to produce for more than 100 years. It has produced more than 18 million tons of copper.
6. Russia: Copper mines production declined slightly in 2023
According to USGS data, Russian copper mines’ production dropped from 936,000 tons in 2022 to 910,000 tons in 2023. The country's largest copper mine is Udokan in Siberia, with reserves of approximately 26.7 million tons. It is the third largest undeveloped copper mine in the world. In 2018, the company planned to raise US$125,000 to develop a mine and smelter, and started the production of copper concentrate in September 2023. According to the plan, the Udokan copper mine will produce 135,000 tons of copper per year in the first production phase, and the annual output will increase to 400,000 tons after full production.
7: Indonesia: Copper mines’ production increased significantly in 2023
According to USGS data, Indonesian copper mine production increased significantly from 734,000 tons in 2021 to 941,000 tons in 2022, but fell by 101,000 tons to 840,000 tons in 2023.
The country's largest copper mine is the Grasberg block cave mine in Papua, owned by PT Freeport Indonesia, a subsidiary of Freeport-McMoRan. Currently, the company’s mining rights are valid until 2041; however, Freeport is in contact with the Indonesian government to discuss extending its mining rights beyond 2041.
According to Freeport, operations at the company's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia's Papua region were forced to suspend operations in February after being hit by flooding. Subsequently, Freeport lowered its first-quarter copper sales forecast, but did not give a clear forecast data.
Indonesian copper miner PT Amman Mineral Internasional said it will increase copper concentrate production to 833,000 tons in physical content in 2024, an increase of approximately 54% compared to last year. Amman's production and sales in 2023 both fell by 32% due to higher rainfall at the beginning of the year. Last year, the company produced 541,893 tons of copper concentrate and sold 548,313 tons both in physical content.
8: Australia: Copper mines’ production in 2023 basically the same as in 2022
According to USGS data, Australian copper mines’ production in 2023 was 810,000 tons, basically the same as 819,000 tons in 2022.
One of Australia's largest copper mines is BHP Billiton's Olympic Dam copper-titanium mine in South Australia, which maintains strong momentum as the world's fourth-largest copper mine.
Mount Isa in Queensland, operated by a subsidiary of Glencore, is also one of the country's largest copper producers. The two Mount Isa copper mines process a combined 6.5 million tons of ore annually.
9. Zambia: Copper mines’ production decreased by 10,000 tons in 2023
According to USGS data, Zambian copper mines’ production was 760,000 tons in 2023, a decrease of 10,000 tons. This is another decline following production of 842,000 tons in 2021. Four major mines, including Barrick Gold's Lumwana and First Quantum Mining's Kansanshi, dominate the country's copper output. In 2023, Kansanshi copper mine's output was 135,000 tons, lower than 146,000 tons in 2022, and the output in 2024 is expected to be 130,000-150,000 tons.
Mopani Copper Mines is the country's other major copper producer. While the company was previously owned by a joint venture between Glencore and First Quantum, the Zambian government (which previously held a 10% stake) took full control of the company in 2021.
10. Mexico: Copper mines’ production in 2023 basically the same as in 2022
According to USGS data, Mexico's copper mine output was 750,000 tons in 2023, basically the same as 754,000 tons in 2022.
One of the largest copper mines in Mexico is the Buenavista del Cobre copper mine in Sonora. It is one of the oldest open-pit mines in North America and one of the top ten producing copper mines in the world. The main owner of the mine is Southern Copper, a subsidiary of the Mexican Group. It was put into production in 1899. It produced 422,800 tons of copper in 2021 and 432,000 tons of copper in 2022. As of the end of 2022, Buenavista del Cobre had a total copper resource of 33.54 million tons with an average grade of 0.20% and reserves of 11.25 million tons with an average grade of 0.35%.
Supply and Demand Outlook for Copper market in 2024
Cochilco expects global copper production to increase by 5.8% to 22.79 million tons in 2024 and to 23.5 million tons in 2025. This is mainly due to the commissioning of new projects, especially Tektronix's Quebrada Blanca II project. In addition, the growth of global demand is also an important factor driving the growth of copper production. Global copper demand is expected to increase by 3.2% to 26.13 million tons in 2024. It is expected that the global copper market will have a surplus of 176,000 tons in 2024, and the surplus will decrease slightly to 170,000 tons in 2025.
According to IWCC estimates (October 2023), global refined copper demand will be 25.88 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. In terms of regions, China and the EU are expected to achieve rapid growth in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 272,000 tons (2.0%) and 80,000 tons (2.7%) expected.
HSBC: The copper market is expected to be in supply shortage in 2024, compared with a surplus previously expected, mainly due to an expected reduction in mine supply. The copper market is expected to turn into a surplus and then into a structural deficit in 2025-26.
Goldman Sachs: Global copper production is expected to be 23 million tons in 2024. China's copper demand is expected to grow by 2.5% this year. The copper market is expected to be in the tightest supply situation since 2021 this year, with a supply gap of 428,000 tons.
CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the global copper mine supply increase from 2024 to 2026 will be 720,000, 510,000 tons, and 530,000 tons. Global refined copper is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2024, and the supply gap is expected to widen significantly starting in 2025. The global refined copper supply and demand balance is expected to be +13,000, -26,000, and -820,000 tons from 2024 to 2026, and the copper price in 2024-2025 will be 9,000-10,000 US dollars per ton.
