China's aluminium market is gaining strength

The price of primary aluminium in China is slowly adding strength. The spot price rose from RMB18950/t on March 1 to RMB19250/t today. Meanwhile, the main index price was RMB18965/t on March 1, but it closed today at RMB19455/t.

These rises come despite Russian metal continuing to enter the market and despite the news that some capacity in Yunnan province will restart.

We are entering the golden period for metal demand, with Q2 historically the peak for consumption. It also helps that the US FED has predicted that interest rates will eventually fall. Other metals, such as copper, are showing similar moves.

These rises come despite Russian metal continuing to enter the market and despite the news that some capacity in Yunnan province will restart.
Will it last? It's hard to call. If Europe bans Russian metal, that would increase the amount that China is receiving. China doesn't need any further increases in supply. The summer lull will almost certainly put an end to the run, even if nothing else does.

We are entering the golden period for metal demand, with Q2 historically the peak for consumption. It also helps that the US FED has predicted that interest rates will eventually fall. Other metals, such as copper, are showing similar moves.

Although we are seeing improvements in demand, it's still too early to say that the upcoming cycle will repeat the highs of previous years. Both supply and demand are improving, so the fundamentals aren't changing too much. The result is that smelter owners are pocketing bigger profits. Alumina prices have risen from a low base, while electricity and carbon costs remain unchanged.

Will it last? It's hard to call. If Europe bans Russian metal, that would increase the amount that China is receiving. China doesn't need any further increases in supply. The summer lull will almost certainly put an end to the run, even if nothing else does.

Source: https://www.alcircle.com/press-release/china-s-aluminium-market-is-gaining-strength-110298