High copper prices muted spot trades

During the week, spot copper was quoted against SHFE 2404 copper contract, and spot discounts further expanded. Although copper prices fell slightly after a sharp rise, downstream purchases for spot cargoes was still poor. Some downstream companies significantly lowered the prices of non-registered sources, but sellers refrained from selling at ultra-low prices. The overall market trades were poor.

There was a contango structure between the SHFE 2404 and 2405 contracts, and the SHFE 2405 and 2406 contracts. Spot dealers refrained from expanding discounts further. Trades may remain subdued. Domestic smelters are awaiting export opportunities. Long-term contracts will be delivered at the end of the month. Quotations from buyers and sellers of spot cargoes are expected to diverge in the week of March 25. Spot discounts will narrow to a limited extent given high copper prices.

Shandong: Spot quotes changed little and moved around 280 yuan/mt in the week ending March 22. As of Thursday, spot copper was quoted with an average discount of 290 yuan/mt. Some processing companies said at the beginning of the week that orders picked up slightly when copper prices fell back, but as copper prices rose, the overall performance was still weak. According to SMM, as the concentrated maintenance period of smelters will begin soon, some smelters have begun to restock in advance for deliveries under long-term contracts. Therefore, there is not much pressure for smelters. Spot premiums were only slightly lower than a week earlier. In the week of March 25, high copper prices will still suppress demand. With warehouse warrants being offered for sale and the shipments arrivals of imported copper, it is expected that spot premiums in Shandong will continue to decline slightly.

Spot quotes in north China fell to low levels. Spot copper was quoted with discounts of 430-330 yuan/mt, with an average discount of 380 yuan/mt as of Thursday, down 120 yuan/mt from Friday March 15. The air pollution in north China and high finished product inventories of downstream processing companies led to a decline in operating rates. However, due to the low spot quotes, downstream buyers restocked in the middle of the week when copper prices fell back, and trades in the spot market increased. In the week of March 25, as copper prices run high, end-users will stand on the sidelines. Finished product inventories of processing companies will be consumed slowly, preventing copper demand from improving significantly. Spot quotes are expected to remain low.

Please do not hesitate to contact Jean at jeantang@smm.cn or 86-19946295759 if you have any question or inquiry.