[SMM Analysis]Boost in Automotive Consumption Drives Rebound in Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in September, Multiple Factors to Constrain Performance in October

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap Expected to Hold Up Well, Cast Aluminum Alloy Ingot Inventory Drops 1,600 mt Week-on-Week] On Thursday, aluminum prices continued their rebound trend. Secondary aluminum enterprises kept their quotations flat, adopting a wait-and-see stance. The SMM ADC12 price held steady at 21,050 yuan/mt. The tight supply of aluminum scrap, which is unlikely to ease in the short term, continues to provide solid cost support. Demand resilience and low plant inventory also underpin prices. However, caution is warranted against the dampening effect of high social inventory and warrant pressure on the upside room. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a firm tone, with key focus on raw material circulation, the pace of demand recovery, and inventory changes.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Session Summary: Positive Macro Sentiment at Home and Abroad Supports Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well] According to the night session data on October 16, technical analysis shows that the SHFE aluminum 2512 contract exhibited an upward trend during the night session, closing up 0.60% at 21,060 yuan/mt. The MA moving average system is arranged in a bullish pattern (MA5: 20,951 > MA10: 20,900 > MA30: 20,815), with prices holding above the moving averages. The MACD indicator continues its golden cross (DIF: 75.3 > DEA: 61.0), and the red momentum bar is expanding. However, the trading volume of 51,859 contracts was lower than the average volume, warranting attention to volume support. Considering recent highs and lows (monthly low: 20,600, high: around 21,200), resistance is expected in the 21,150–21,250 range, with support in the 20,850–20,950 range. The current bullish trend remains intact, but the divergence between price and volume calls for caution against a technical correction risk.

[SMM Analysis]Post-Holiday Aluminum Scrap Market Sees Volatile Recovery and Rebound, Short-Term Cost Support for Cast Aluminum Alloy Remains Solid.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Domestic and Overseas Macro and Fundamentals Hold Up Well, Aluminum Prices Maintain Strong Performance]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: CPI Rebound Coupled with Inventory Drawdown Supports Aluminum Prices to Hold Up Well in the Short Term] Based on night session data from October 15, technical analysis shows that the SHFE aluminum 2511 contract fluctuated rangebound during the night session, closing slightly up by 0.05% at 20,885 yuan/mt. Moving averages indicate the price was below the 5-day daily average (20,904) but above the 10-day (20,853), 30-day (20,806), and 60-day (20,699) averages, suggesting short-term pressure while the medium and long-term trend remains bullish. Trading volume fell to 22,933 contracts, below the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day daily averages, reflecting low market participation and strong wait-and-see sentiment. The MACD indicator was positive (DIF: 49.20, DEA: 46.28), but the histogram was relatively small, indicating weak momentum. Resistance is seen near the recent high range of 20,900–21,000, while support lies around 20,800–20,850, with key support near the 60-day average at 20,699. Overall, fluctuations were limited during the night session, and no clear directional breakout was observed technically.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Short-Term Cast Aluminum Fluctuating Trend Hard to Change, Focus on Breakthrough Momentum at 20,500 yuan/mt] On Wednesday, aluminum prices continued their rebound trend. Secondary aluminum enterprises showed divergent quotations, with some raising prices by 100 yuan/mt driven by costs, while others held steady and adopted a wait-and-see approach. Currently, raw material supply remains tight, and enterprises continue to face cost pressure. On the demand side, stability with a positive trend supports price resilience, but inventory pressure constrains the upward momentum. It is expected that ADC12 prices may maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. The pace of improvement in raw material supply, changes in social inventory, and the post-holiday demand recovery rhythm will be key factors influencing price movements.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: US Fed's Month-End Interest Rate Cut Signals Strengthen, Consumption Underpins Aluminum Market with Support] According to night session data on October 14, the SHFE aluminum 2511 contract closed at 20,855 yuan/mt, down 0.36%, under short-term pressure at the 5-day daily average (MA5: 20,934) but above the 10-, 30-, and 60-day daily averages, with the medium and long-term trend still biased to the upside; trading volume (31,647 contracts) shrank below the average volume, indicating low market activity; the MACD indicator showed a negative DIF and positive DEA, with a slightly positive histogram, reflecting insufficient momentum. Referencing recent price highs and lows (such as the high near 21,005 and low near 19,200), the resistance zone is viewed at 20,950–21,000 (near the previous high and MA5), while the support zone is seen at 20,680–20,800 (near the intraday low and MA60). Overall, the market fluctuated rangebound, and the direction of a range breakout warrants attention.