[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Decline, with Supply from Myanmar Continuing to Shrink]: According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 53.86%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan continued to decline compared to the previous week and was nearly 10 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. The treatment charges (TCs) for tin concentrates with a 40% grade remained at historically low levels, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi was only 40.19%, consistently lower than that in Yunnan and down by approximately 15 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap supply, with some capacities potentially exiting the market permanently. The reduction in scrap sources and the dual squeeze on costs have led to an increase in scrap recycling costs combined with a decline in tin concentrate TCs, driving up production costs for enterprises and undermining the profitability of refined tin recycling from scrap. According to sources, relevant Thai authorities have decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting from June 4. SMM understands that approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) of tin ore is transported from southern Myanmar to Thailand each month for transit into China. The Thai authorities' ban is expected to affect the transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar in June.

Some traders have already depleted their inventory, and SHFE tin prices continue to fluctuate upward [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Content of the phone call between the Chinese and US heads of state: Both sides should make good use of the established economic and trade consultation mechanisms to strive for a win-win outcome; the US side will continue to adhere to the one-China policy. (Bullish ★) (2) Musk stated that Tesla (TSLA.O)'s Dojo AI training computer is making progress. We will launch the next-generation AI supercomputer, Dojo 2, later this year. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① Japanese media: The US has shown flexibility in reducing additional reciprocal tariffs on Japan. ② Sources: US and Indian negotiators may finalise tariff reductions and market access issues, reaching a provisional agreement. ③ Trump: A good trade deal will be reached with Germany. (Neutral)

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,640/mt, touching a low of $9,603.5/mt shortly after the opening bell.

Downstream restocking willingness on dips has decreased, while SHFE tin prices continue to fluctuate upward [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) GlobalFoundries, a US semiconductor wafer foundry company, has announced plans to invest US$16 billion to enhance its semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging capabilities at its facilities in New York and Vermont. (Bullish ★) (2) China South Industries Group Corporation has implemented a spin-off, with its automotive business becoming an independent central state-owned enterprise. (Bullish ★) (3) Jean-Marc Chery, CEO of STMicroelectronics, stated on Wednesday that the French-Italian chipmaker has seen signs of an upturn, with market demand expected to increase, which will boost its performance in the coming quarters. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① It is rumored that a US-Canada agreement may be reached next week. Canadian Prime Minister: If negotiations fail, Canada is prepared to take retaliatory measures against the US. ② EU trade officials: Negotiations with the US are progressing steadily in the right direction. ③ UK Prime Minister: Very confident that US tariffs can be reduced in a very short time. ④ US Commerce Secretary: Analysis and formulation of tariff standards for aircraft parts will be completed by month-end; there will be no mutual tariff and barrier reductions with Vietnam. ⑤ Mexico will announce measures to address US steel and aluminum tariffs next week. (Neutral)

SHFE Tin Prices Rebound During Night Session, Spot Market May Cool Down [SMM Tin Morning Brief] Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) experienced a slight pullback after the opening of the night session and then fluctuated rangebound, with the price center moving slightly higher to around 254,000 yuan/mt, up 1.54% from yesterday. Macro: (1) Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, pointed out that the US, without any factual basis, has smeared and accused China, imposed export controls on chips to China, suspended the sale of chip design and software to China, and announced the revocation of visas for Chinese students, among other extreme repressive measures. These actions have seriously undermined the Geneva consensus and harmed China's legitimate rights and interests. China firmly opposes this and has lodged solemn representations. (Bearish ★) (2) The Ministry of Commerce and four other departments have organized the 2025 New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Rural Promotion Campaign. (Bullish ★) (3) WSTS: The global semiconductor market size is expected to reach $700.9 billion in 2025. (Bullish ★)