Macro sentiment dissipated, nickel prices fluctuated downward today【SMM Nickel Brief Comment】

SMM, February 26: On February 26, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 136,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 132,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,890 yuan/ton from the closing price of the previous trading day. Intraday trading was weaker than the previous trading day, with a decrease of 52,673 lots in volume and a decrease in open interest of 12,820 lots. This combination indicates that both the long and short sides have reduced their trades and are inclined to wait and see, but the bulls are actively closing their positions. The decrease in trading volume shows that the long position is more rational, and there is no urgency but the ideal price, so the market is mostly falling gently, and the probability of a sustained decline is high. On the macro front, the US and EU sanctions on Russia have little to no nickel impact, and market sentiment has been priced in over the weekend. In addition, the pace of RKAB review in Indonesia has accelerated, and the expectation of tight nickel ore supply has also weakened. Therefore, Shanghai nickel fluctuated in a wide range today. From a fundamental point of view, affected by the sharp rise in nickel prices last week, although nickel prices have fallen today, the absolute spot price is still at a recent high level, and the downstream is still waiting for a more suitable time to purchase. To sum up, it is expected that the follow-up nickel price may fluctuate weakly.