SMM's Manganese Analysis of January Production and Feb forecast
1. Battery grade manganese sulfate
In January 2024, China's production of high-purity manganese sulfate was approximately 16400 tons, a decrease of 24.07% compared to the previous month. According to market feedback, some high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises have plans to shut down production for maintenance in January. On the demand side, some precursor enterprises saw an increase in orders in January, driving up production scheduling. Due to the demand for pre holiday preparation, the procurement demand for manganese sulfate is better than expected. Therefore, high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises must maintain full capacity production in order to barely meet demand. At the same time, some individual manganese salt precursor integrated enterprises have also increased their production of high-purity manganese sulfate this month, but the impact on overall production is not significant. Overall, the overall market production has declined significantly this month.
Entering February, according to SMM's understanding, most ternary precursor enterprises have plans for pre production in January, but actual demand has not increased much, so the production schedule for February may have decreased. However, high-purity manganese sulfate enterprises also expressed insufficient confidence in the market demand in February, and there are still some enterprises that choose to undergo maintenance and production shutdown during the Spring Festival period. Only a few enterprises must maintain normal operations due to low inventory levels. Therefore, overall, it is expected to achieve a production of approximately 12500 physical tons of high-purity manganese sulfate in February, a decrease of 24.09% compared to the previous month.
2. Electrolytic manganese dioxide
According to SMM data, the production of electrolytic manganese dioxide in China in January 2024 was 15300 tons (including 0700 tons of lithium manganese oxide, 9900 tons of alkali manganese, and 4700 tons of carbon zinc), a decrease of 7.98% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 7.91%. This month, the production of electrolytic manganese dioxide in lithium manganese oxide, alkaline manganese, and carbon zinc grades has all decreased. In terms of demand, primary batteries remain stable, while demand for lithium manganese oxide increases. However, considering that demand in February is often weak, the supply side has not increased the operating rate, and the overall focus is mainly on destocking.
Entering February, according to market feedback, there are currently no plans for maintenance and shutdown of electrolytic manganese dioxide enterprises, and they are basically maintaining normal operations. Considering the significant losses caused by sudden shutdown, the overall production schedule has only slightly decreased. Based on comprehensive assessment, the production of electrolytic manganese dioxide in February was approximately 14800 tons.
3. Manganese tetroxide
According to SMM data, the production of manganese trioxide in China in January 2024 was 10100 tons (including 4800 tons of electronic grade and 5300 tons of battery grade), an increase of 21.08% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 15.90%. This month, the production of battery grade manganese tetroxide has increased significantly, while electronic grade manganese tetroxide has remained stable. From the demand side, the order situation of lithium manganese oxide enterprises in January has improved, and the procurement demand for battery grade manganese tetroxide has increased, simultaneously releasing the demand for pre holiday reserve inventory. Therefore, the production of battery grade manganese trioxide has increased this month. In terms of electronic products, the off-season of market consumption has encountered pre holiday stocking, resulting in downstream procurement being relatively stable with little fluctuation.
From market feedback, it can be seen that in February, due to the majority of lithium manganese oxide companies shifting production from February to January, the production schedule for February has decreased. Therefore, the demand for purchasing battery grade manganese tetroxide will also decrease. On the supply side, some manganese tetroxide enterprises have plans to suspend production during the Spring Festival holiday, which will result in a certain degree of reduction in production schedules. Overall, the total production of manganese trioxide in February is expected to be approximately 6300 tons.
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