Lithium Carbonate January Production Analysis & February Forecast
The domestic production of lithium carbonate in January was about 42000 tons, a month on month increase of -5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 15.6%. From the perspective of raw material situation, some lithium salt enterprises with pyroxene materials have reduced production due to the sluggish market and low mining and transportation efficiency at the winter mining end, resulting in reduced production. However, some lithium salt enterprises have offset the overall decrease in production due to increased OEM orders and some new production enterprises climbing production; However, most small and medium-sized lithium salt enterprises that purchase lithium mica continue to suffer losses and overall reduce their production; Most lithium salt recycling companies are also choosing to reduce or shut down production while continuing to incur losses.
Entering February, the Spring Festival holiday and centralized maintenance season for the production departments of most lithium salt enterprises will become the main disturbance factors for lithium carbonate production. Coupled with the sluggish market situation, most small and medium-sized lithium salt enterprises will choose to reduce or stop production in mid to late January. Domestic lithium carbonate production will significantly decrease, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in February will be about 32000 tons, a month on month of -22.9%, and a year-on-year of 3.9%.
According to the feedback of lithium salt enterprises, most overhauled salt plants will gradually resume production around the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival) Festival, but most of the small and medium-sized lithium salt enterprises that purchase lithium minerals will choose the opportunity to resume production according to market conditions, which means that domestic lithium carbonate production will face a short vacuum period in late February; Chile's export of lithium carbonate to China in December was -36% month on month to 8676 tons, which may lead to a synchronous decrease in domestic imports in January; The domestic supply of lithium carbonate will be reduced, and currently, most lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are concentrated in trading enterprises, which may provide trading enterprises with opportunities to compete for spot price discounts. But as we enter March, lithium salt production will gradually recover, and there will be more lithium carbonate warehouse receipts cancelled. The supply of lithium carbonate in the market will also be restored accordingly.
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