Aluminium Ingot January Production Analysis & February Forecast
According to SMM statistics, the domestic aluminum Ingot production in January 2024 (31 days) was 3.562 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The daily average production of domestic electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable around 114900 tons month on month in January. In January, domestic aluminum initial processing enterprises saw a slight decline in production, with a decrease in production of aluminum bars and other products in the northwest, southwest and other regions. The proportion of aluminum in the industry decreased by 3.7 percentage points month on month and 11.2 percentage points year-on-year to about 70.36%. According to the SMM aluminum water ratio data, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot production in January decreased by 24% year-on-year to around 1.06 million tons. In January, the main aluminum ingot production areas in China were Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and other regions. The total aluminum ingot production in these three provinces was about 590000 tons, accounting for 55.7% of the total aluminum ingot production.
Production capacity changes: In January, domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises maintained stable operation, and there were no large-scale shutdowns or resumption of production during the month. As of the end of January, SMM statistics show that the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.19 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 41.98 million tons. The industry operating rate increased by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year to 92.9%.
Production forecast: As we enter February 2024, most domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises will operate steadily, while Yunnan region is still in a dry season. The province's electricity supply, including wind power, solar power, and thermal power, has increased year-on-year. However, local electrolytic aluminum enterprises are waiting for clearer electricity supply information to clarify their resumption of production actions. SMM predicts that most enterprises in the province will operate steadily from February to March. There are currently no expected changes in production capacity in other regions.
SMM predicts that the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum will remain stable around 42 million tons by February.
The daily average production of domestic electrolytic aluminum in February will remain stable compared to the previous month. It is expected that the total production of domestic electrolytic aluminum in February (29 days) will be around 3.33 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% (28 days in February last year).
In February, which coincides with the Chinese Spring Festival holiday, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China has decreased, and the industry's ingot casting volume has shown a phased increase. According to preliminary research by SMM, the proportion of aluminum in the industry may fall to around 66% in February, a year-on-year increase of 5 percentage points.
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