SMM review and forecast of film and granules prices

Published: Feb 7, 2024 17:06

Save

As the Chinese New Year holidays is approaching, plastic film companies are gradually entering a holiday state. Factories are shut down, production lines are stopped, and prices are locked. Stable plastic film prices in January have become a generally recognized result in everyone's mind.

As of February 6, 2024, the price of 420-gram white EVA film is 6.72-6.93 yuan/square meter, the price of 420-gram transparent EVA film is 6.26-6.47 yuan/square meter, and the price of 380-gram EPE film is 7.56-7.94 yuan/square meter. The price of 460g heavy POE film is 13.34-13.80 yuan/square meter.

After the Chinese New Year holidays, inventory accumulation may occur and market supply will increase.

According to forecast 1. , the national component demand may reach around 30GW in February (assuming 30GW, subject to "actual forecast" and "actual results"), and it is expected that the production performance may be even more sluggish than in January. Even if some film manufacturers will roll over orders from January to February which can provide support for February's operating rate, it will not ultimately affect the results of the destocking of films.

According to the work plans of previous years, it is speculated that the prices of granules and film may experience an unstable fluctuation stage after the holidays.

If the price of upstream granules rises after the holiday and the willingness of film vendors to purchase film is weak, it remains unsure whether the price can maintain the current state in the short term; if the price of upstream granules rises after the holiday and the willingness of film vendors to purchase film is strong, the purchasing pace may be advanced, thereby further pushing up granules prices; if the upstream granule prices are stable after the holiday and the willingness to purchase is weak, the possibility of further increases in granule prices in the short term will immediately decrease, and the price may fluctuate slightly or remain stable; if the upstream granule price is stable after the holiday and the film dealers have a strong willingness to purchase film, the film procurement will remain normal. On this basis, granule prices may rise steadily due to large-volume orders.

Generally speaking, there is a tendency for granule prices to increase after the holidays.

1. Note: The forecast results do not represent the actual results and are only used as a reference and estimate.

Market review

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

4 hours ago

Wafer Prices Officially Rise

[SMM Flash] On August 12, SMM learned that two leading silicon wafer enterprises have successively resumed quotations, with the latest prices as follows: N-type wafer—183mm: 0.9 yuan/piece N-type wafer—210R: 1 yuan/piece N-type wafer—210mm: 1.2 yuan/piece The new round of wafer quotations has increased by 0.1 yuan/piece compared to the previous level. SMM analysis indicates that this round of wafer price hikes is closely related to cost policies. The actual procurement costs of wafer enterprises have shifted upward, corresponding to rising furnace input costs, making the wafer price increase within reason.

4 hours ago

8 hours ago

Silicon Metal Price Center Narrowly Firmer, Wafer Range Highs Edge Up Slightly [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: Yesterday, SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at about 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at about 9,200-9,400 yuan/mt, with the price center edging up WoW. In the futures market, the most-traded contract showed strength, with the most-traded SI2609 contract consolidating near 8,600 yuan/mt. Futures prices rose, which, combined with silicon enterprises’ reluctance to sell at low prices, reduced cheap supply in the silicon market. Suppliers’ offer centers firmed, while downstream users remained largely in a wait-and-see sentiment, resulting in subdued trading. Wafers: Market prices were 0.798-0.827 yuan/piece for 18X wafers, 0.896-0.915 yuan/piece for 210RN wafers, and 1.097-1.113 yuan/piece for 210N wafers. The upper end of the wafer price range inched up. Yesterday afternoon, a leading specialized wafer enterprise also suspended quoting, planning to increase prices by over 10%. As of now, three enterprises have stopped quoting or suspended shipments.

8 hours ago

Aug 11, 2026 17:49

[SMM PV News] AIKO ABC Modules Officially Delivered to Jingneng Kubuqi Desert Phase I 240MW Project

Recently, the first fleet of vehicles loaded with AIKO ABC high-efficiency modules successfully arrived at the Kubuqi Desert base in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, marking the official start of delivery for the first phase of the Jingneng Kubuqi "desert-Gobi-wasteland" large base, a 240 MW ABC PV project. As an important part of the cluster of national desert-Gobi-wasteland clean energy bases in Inner Mongolia, this project is not only a crucial move by Jingneng Group to implement the national large base strategy for new energy, but also another demonstration of AIKO ABC high-efficiency modules supporting the construction of "desert-Gobi-wasteland" large bases with their robust product capabilities under extreme climate conditions. The Kubuqi Desert features high surface reflectivity, large day-night temperature differences, and frequent sandstorms, posing rigorous challenges to the long-term operational reliability and power generation stability of PV modules. As the sole winning bidder, AIKO supplies all 240 MW of ABC bifacial double-glass modules for this project. Leveraging high conversion efficiency, high bifaciality, and excellent low-irradiance performance, AIKO ABC modules can fully harness the reflection gains from the desert surface, boosting power generation capacity per unit area. According to estimates, the project is expected to achieve an average annual equivalent utilization of 1,612.63 hours over its 25-year operational period. Compared with conventional modules, it can save more than 6% land area, reduce BOS costs, and achieve the optimal levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for the project.

Aug 11, 2026 17:49