[SMM Tin Midday Review: Spot Market Shows Low Inventory and High Contango Structure, Compounded by Low Operating Rate at Smelting End Limiting Price Decline] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) fluctuated downward slightly in the morning session today, opening at 265,000 yuan/mt. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed, and it fluctuated downward, closing around 264,860 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.20% from the previous day. Open interest decreased slightly to 28,900 lots, with market trading activity being moderately weak, and short-term funds showing signs of profit-taking.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,527.5/mt. Prices fluctuated at the beginning of the session, dipping to a low of $9,511.0/mt during the session, before fluctuating upward.

Ministry of Commerce: China Urges the US to Halt 232 Tariff Measures as Soon as Possible; Spot Market Sluggish Due to High Prices [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Li Qiang: Strengthening the domestic economic cycle should be a strategic move to promote steady and sustained economic growth. (Bullish ★) (2) Ministry of Commerce: China urges the US to halt 232 tariff measures as soon as possible and properly address the concerns of all parties through equal dialogue. (Bullish ★) (3) Ministry of Commerce responds to the US's abuse of export control measures to restrict Huawei's Ascend chips: China will take resolute measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - Japan seeks to hold the third round of US-Japan trade talks next week, the US is considering revising the US-Japan trade agreement, the EU and the US will accelerate the trade negotiation process, and the EU hopes for greater tariff reductions than the UK. (Neutral) (5) Fed Chairman Powell: The US Fed is adjusting its overall policy-making framework. Zero interest rates are no longer a baseline scenario. There is a need to reconsider the wording on underemployment and average inflation, and it is expected that the April PCE will fall to 2.2%. (Bullish ★)

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Downstream solder, electronics, and home appliance enterprises, constrained by high prices, only maintained just-in-time procurement. Trading in the spot market was sluggish.] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs. It opened slightly higher in the night session at 265,480 yuan/mt and remained rangebound, closing at 265,210 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up slightly by 0.22% from the previous day. The cumulative gain over five days narrowed to 1.43%. Open interest decreased slightly to 30,500 lots, with market trading activity being moderately weak and capital competition intensifying. Bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war over the logic of "short-term tight balance vs. easing in the long term," with the reduction in open interest indicating divergent views among investors...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 15 May, 2025

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Limited Short-Term Supply Increase in Domestic Smelting Sector, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate at Highs, Suppressing Spot Cargo Transactions] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) continued to fluctuate at highs in the morning session today. It opened at 266,520 yuan/mt, with narrowed intraday fluctuations, and closed around 265,250 yuan/mt at midday, up slightly by 0.23% from the previous trading day. Open interest decreased slightly to 29,600 lots, with neutral to weak market trading activity. The battle between bulls and bears intensified near the 265,000 yuan/mt threshold.

The US has adjusted tariff hikes on China. SHFE tin prices remain high and range-bound. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory exported nearly 30,000 Model 3/Y units in April, hitting a new high in nearly a year. (Bullish ★) (2) India has approved the establishment of a Foxconn semiconductor joint venture. (Bullish ★) (3) The US adjusted tariff hikes on China at 00:01 AM EST on May 14. (Bullish ★) (4) Tariffs - ① Sources: The US trade tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and India are "close to being finalized." ② Sources: The US is not seeking a depreciation of the US dollar in tariff negotiations. ③ The EU is preparing to impose higher tariffs on imported goods from Ukraine within a few weeks. ④ US media: Trump rewrote trade rules over 50 times in 100 days.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Spot Market Transactions Fluctuate Around 264,000 Yuan/mt, SHFE Tin Prices Show a Sideways Trend at Highs] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) exhibited a fluctuating pattern at highs. During the night session, it surged to 266,100 yuan/mt, driven by macro sentiment, before consolidating sideways. It closed at 265,770 yuan/mt during the daytime session, up 0.92% from the previous day, with a cumulative five-day increase of 1.74%. Open interest increased slightly to 31,500 lots, maintaining a neutral level of market trading activity. Bullish factors: The US April unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate unexpectedly fell to 2.3% (a more than four-year low), coupled with signals from US Fed officials that "interest rate cuts are still possible this year," causing the US dollar index to pull back and boosting risk appetite in the metal market. The phased implementation of the China-US tariff agreement has led to an expected marginal improvement in export demand for electronics, new energy, and other sectors, supporting the risk premium of tin prices...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 14 May, 2025