SMM Analysis: The molybdenum price will remain strong on year-end stockpiling

SHANGHAI, Feb 6 (SMM) - Throughout January, domestic molybdenum prices showed an overall steady and upward trend, driven by the continuous release of restocking demand from steel mills before Chinese New Year.

In January, the monthly average price of 45% molybdenum concentrate was 3,281 yuan/ton unit, an increase of 193 yuan/ton unit from the previous month; the monthly average price of 60-molybdenum iron was 217,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83 yuan/ton from the previous month; the monthly average price of first-grade tetramolybdenum ammonium acid was 215,300 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 9,300 yuan/ton; the monthly average price of first-grade molybdenum powder was 426 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 21 yuan/kg.

Supply side: In January, with shipments from large-scale molybdenum mines, the domestic mainstream molybdenum concentrate price was basically stable at 3,300 yuan/ton; some traders also made shipments (mainly under small orders). Most traders were very optimistic about the expected price trend of molybdenum concentrate in the new year. According to SMM, some small and medium-sized molybdenum mines in the southern region have plans to suspend production for maintenance during the Chinese New Year holiday. The output rate of molybdenum mines in the central and northern regions is mainly stable, so the overall output of molybdenum mines will fall slightly during the holiday.

Demand side: In January, the monthly ferromolybdenum bid solicitation volume exceeded 12,000 tons, and downstream demand was stable and strong, providing strong support for the stable movement of molybdenum prices.

Terminal steel mills said they will not close but will reduce load production during the Chinese New Year holiday; large steel mills have no plan to implement production reduction operations, so the supply and demand in production are relatively stable.

Ferromolybdenum smelting plants: The production schedule of most smelting plants has been arranged to March. Small and medium-sized smelting plants may have a holiday and stop production for 10-20 days during the Chinese New Year. Large smelting plants will continue to operate stably.

Taken together, at this stage and even in the first quarter, the supply and demand in the domestic molybdenum market are relatively stable and continue to maintain a tight balance. Molybdenum prices will also fluctuate within a narrow range at the current price level, with limited increases and decreases.