The main lithium carbonate contract fell, down 2.36% [SMM Review]

This week, the battery industry chain showed divergent trends. Spot lithium ore was tight, but expectations of future supply growth weighed on prices. On October 12, the average spot price of lithium carbonate fell to 115,400 yuan/mt, down 6,950 yuan/mt in a single day. Futures declined with rising open interest, while social inventory continued to destock. Lithium hydroxide, cobalt salt, and nickel sulphate were under pressure, with cautious purchasing. Ternary cathode precursor, ternary cathode material, and LCO weakened along with raw materials. LFP orders were relatively strong, with high-quality production lines running near full capacity and finished product inventories declining. Iron phosphate operating rates were high, but resistance to price increases grew. Artificial graphite edged up, supported by costs and demand, while natural graphite operated at low levels. Separator was supported by NEV, energy storage, and export rush demand, with supply-demand conditions tight. Electrolyte rose due to lagged cost pass-through. Sodium-ion battery production and delivery were stable, while recycling-side inquiries recovered but transactions did not increase in volume. In news, CATL deepened cooperation with Seres. In the first three quarters, NEV production and sales both exceeded 12 million units. Export tax rebate policy adjustments and China-EU automotive trade consultations drew attention.

At the start of this week, the cobalt industry chain remained weak overall, with downstream procurement mainly need-based and market trading sluggish. The mainstream ex-works price for refined cobalt held at 270,000 yuan/mt, while traders raised their basis. There was a divergence between the floor purchase price of $14.5/lb for intermediate products and downstream acceptance prices below $13/lb. Cobalt sulphate was quoted at around 60,000 yuan/mt, with weakening cost support; cobalt chloride and Co3O4 saw production cuts and destocking, while new orders were insufficient. Cobalt powder quotes fell to 325,000–340,000 yuan/mt, and high-priced inventory weighed on procurement. Ternary cathode precursor and ternary cathode material prices weakened, with order coefficients under pressure; export orders were relatively better, while domestic demand recovery remained limited. LCO pulled back along with costs, and peak-season expectations fell through. The industry is focused on order changes following the annual conference. In news, CATL and Seres deepened cooperation on capacity and outside China; NEV production and sales both exceeded 12 million units in the first three quarters, with notable export growth; export rebate rates are set to be lowered, and China-EU auto trade consultations clarified basic principles.