๊ฒŒ์‹œ๋จ: Jan 29, 2024 16:44
SMM Analysis: Lack of Upside Momentum on the Market, Difficult for Aluminum Oxide to Find Arbitrage Space under Stable Spot Background. According to SMM's risk-free arbitrage model for aluminum oxide, since the listing of aluminum oxide futures on June 19, the arbitrage window has opened twice, but the background and impact of the two opportunities are slightly different. This analysis by SMM provides a chronological review of the situation.

๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ ์ถœ์ฒ˜ ์„ค๋ช…: ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ์™ธํ•œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋Š” SMM์ด ๊ณต๊ฐœ ์ •๋ณด, ์‹œ์žฅ ์ปค๋ฎค๋‹ˆ์ผ€์ด์…˜ ๋ฐ SMM ๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฒ ์ด์Šค ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€๊ณตํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์ž๋ฃŒ๋Š” ์ฐธ๊ณ ์šฉ์ด๋ฉฐ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ • ๊ถŒ๊ณ ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์„ฑํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์˜ ์‚ฌํ•ญ์ด ์žˆ๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์›ํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ์—ฐ๋ฝํ•ด ์ฃผ์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค: lemonzhao@smm.cn
๋ฆฌ์„œ์น˜ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ ์—ด๋žŒ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž์„ธํ•œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์€ ์•„๋ž˜๋กœ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹œ๊ธฐ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:service.en@smm.cn
๊ด€๋ จ ๋‰ด์Šค
A00 ์†Œํญ ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ „๋ฐ˜์  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ [์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
A00 ์†Œํญ ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ „๋ฐ˜์  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ [์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
A00 ์†Œํญ ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ „๋ฐ˜์  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ [์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
A00 ์†Œํญ ํ•˜๋ฝ, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ „๋ฐ˜์  ์•ˆ์ •์„ธ [์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์Šคํฌ๋žฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ]
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹ ์žฅ ๋ณด์œ„์•ˆ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ค€๋‘ฅ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 15๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
์‹ ์žฅ ๋ณด์œ„์•ˆ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ค€๋‘ฅ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 15๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
์‹ ์žฅ ๋ณด์œ„์•ˆ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ค€๋‘ฅ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 15๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
์‹ ์žฅ ๋ณด์œ„์•ˆ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„, ์ค€๋‘ฅ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ตฌ์—์„œ ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ 15๋งŒ ํ†ค ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ์ถ”์ง„
์‹ ์žฅ ๋ณด์œ„์•ˆ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์œ ํ•œ๊ณต์‚ฌ๋Š” ์—ฐ์‚ฐ 15๋งŒ ํ†ค ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์‹ ํ˜• ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ฐ˜์ œํ’ˆ ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ ๊ฑด์„ค์„ ์ „๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ง„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์‹ ์žฅ ์ค€๋‘ฅ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๊ตฌ ํ™”์ƒค์˜ค์‚ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋‹ค์šด์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆผ ์‚ฐ์—…๋‹จ์ง€์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•œ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ์ดํˆฌ์ž 1์–ต 8์ฒœ๋งŒ ์œ„์•ˆ, ๋ถ€์ง€ ๋ฉด์  64๋ฌด์ด๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ฑด์ถ• ๋ฉด์  2๋งŒ 3์ฒœ ์ œ๊ณฑ๋ฏธํ„ฐ์˜ ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™” ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ž‘์—…์žฅ 2๊ฐœ ๋™์„ ๊ฑด์„คํ•  ๊ณ„ํš์ด๋‹ค. ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ ์ธก๋ฉด์—์„œ ์ด ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๋Š” ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ๋ด‰ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ 2๊ฐœ, ์ฃผ์กฐ ์••์—ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ฝ”์ผยท์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฝ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ 8๊ฐœ, ๋ƒ‰๊ฐ„ ์••์—ฐ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ฝ”์ผยท์ŠคํŠธ๋ฆฝ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ 1๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค. ํ”„๋กœ์ ํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์ „๋ฉด ์™„๊ณต๋˜์–ด ๊ฐ€๋™๋˜๋ฉด ์—ฐ๊ฐ„ ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„  6๋งŒ ํ†ค, ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์ฝ”์ผ 9๋งŒ ํ†ค์˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–์ถœ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ˆ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค.
2์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ] ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝ; ADC12 ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋ณดํ•ฉ
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „
[ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ] ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝ; ADC12 ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋ณดํ•ฉ
๋” ๋ณด๊ธฐ
[ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ] ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝ; ADC12 ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋ณดํ•ฉ
[ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ๋ฆฌ๋ทฐ] ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ณ ์ ์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝ; ADC12 ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•์„ธ ์† ๋ณดํ•ฉ
[ADC12 ๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ ์ผ์ผ ์ฝ”๋ฉ˜ํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ: ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ์„ ๋ฌผ ๊ณ ์  ํšก๋ณด, ADC12 ํ˜„๋ฌผ ๊ฐ•๋ณดํ•ฉ] ์•Œ๋ฃจ๋ฏธ๋Š„ ํ•ฉ๊ธˆ 2611 ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜ 23,430์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์— ๊ฐœ์žฅํ•˜์—ฌ ์žฅ์ค‘ ์ €์ ์ธ 23,320์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์—์„œ ์ง€์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์€ ํ›„ ์ ์ง„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ•˜๋ฃจ ์ข…์ผ 23,320~23,560์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค ๋ฒ”์œ„์—์„œ ๋“ฑ๋ฝ์„ ๊ฑฐ๋“ญํ•˜๋‹ค๊ฐ€ 23,435์œ„์•ˆ/ํ†ค์— ๋งˆ๊ฐํ•˜์—ฌ 0.11% ์ƒ์Šนํ–ˆ๋‹ค.
3์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ „