November 7 news: North China ports: South African high-iron manganese ore at 29.4-30.1 yuan/mtu, up 0.34% WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 34.1-34.6 yuan/mtu, up 0.29% WoW from last Tuesday; Gabonese ore at 39.6-40.4 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; Australian lumps at 39.9-40.4 yuan/mtu, down 0.25% WoW from last Tuesday; South African medium-iron manganese ore at 35.2-35.9 yuan/mtu, up 0.28% WoW from last Friday. South China ports: South African high-iron manganese ore at 30.7-31.2 yuan/mtu, up 0.32% WoW from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate at 36.9-37.4 yuan/mtu, up 0.27% WoW from last Friday; Gabonese ore at 40.5-40.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW from last Friday; Australian lumps at 40.1-40.8 yuan/mtu, down 0.25% WoW from last Friday; South African medium-iron manganese ore at 36.7-37.4 yuan/mtu, up 0.54% WoW from last Friday. Overall, the manganese ore market shows no significant changes in supply and demand, maintaining a firm and stable trend.

[SMM Analysis] In Q3 2025, the FOB South Korea nickel and cobalt payables for ternary pole piece black mass remained generally stable, but regional price spreads gradually narrowed; at the same time, an increasing trend in imports by Japan and South Korea and Southeast Asia emerged simultaneously, indicating a restructuring of cross-border flows, with Southeast Asia gradually becoming a key period for intermediate product processing and re-export.

Cobalt sulphate prices held steady this week, while prices of salt products such as nickel sulphate and lithium carbonate dropped slightly. With the decline in salt prices and the passing of the month-end just-in-time procurement period, the lithium coefficient for LCO black mass dropped slightly. Meanwhile, the price per % lithium for LFP black mass fell WoW in line with the drop in lithium chemical prices, but the decline was relatively small. Taking LFP pole piece black mass as an example, the current price range is 2,900-3,150 yuan/mtu. For ternary black mass, the nickel and cobalt payables currently stand at 75.5-76%, flat WoW, while the lithium payables range from 71-74%, basically flat MoM. On the profit side, earlier profits from producing lithium carbonate using externally purchased LFP black mass rebounded as lithium prices rose, with the profit margin ranging from -3% to 4%. However, as lithium prices pulled back, the profit margin also fell to between -5% and -6%. The situation is similar in the ternary hydrometallurgy sector, where profits generally hover around 1-3%. In the LCO hydrometallurgy sector, profits have declined to around 1-3% as rising cobalt prices drove up cobalt payables for upstream and downstream recycling enterprises. Supply side, after the decline in nickel, cobalt, and lithium prices, upstream recycling enterprises need some time to pass on price changes for batteries such as LCO and LFP, as well as pole pieces. Prices for black mass and used battery cells remained mostly flat with minor decreases. Most enterprises, facing losses, adopted a wait-and-see approach, with many LFP battery hydrometallurgy recycling plants maintaining toll processing for business clients.

Spot cobalt sulphate prices remained generally stable this week, with the market showing a supply-demand tug-of-war. On the supply side, a divergence emerged. Supported by raw material costs, smelters mostly maintained their offers in the high range of 88,000-90,000 yuan/mt. Some traders opted to take profits amid high cobalt prices, selling earlier inventories at prices ranging from 81,000-85,000 yuan/mt, with specific prices varying depending on raw material sources and stockpiling duration. On the demand side, downstream enterprises completed phased stockpiling after the holiday, and purchase willingness has weakened, with limited acceptance of smelters' high offers. In terms of procurement strategy, downstream customers preferred lower-priced old inventories circulating in the market to control raw material costs. Overall, upstream and downstream enterprises still disagreed on prices, and the market remained in a deadlock in the short term. Cobalt sulphate prices are likely to remain stable, awaiting gradual digestion and acceptance by downstream users. The next price increase for cobalt salts is expected to depend on the start of a new round of downstream procurement.

Cobalt intermediate product spot prices continued to hold up well this week. Since major international miners suspended offers in September, the market has remained seller-dominated, with overall price guidance still lacking. Supply side, mainstream miners and traders continued to withhold offers, keeping spot cargo availability limited. Demand side, overall performance was stable. As raw material inventories at downstream smelters gradually depleted, inquiry prices edged higher. However, upstream suppliers were determined to hold prices firm, leading to slow progress in actual transactions, and the market continued to show a state of "nominal prices without actual trading." Although the DRC announced the lifting of its export ban on October 16th, actual shipments from ports had not resumed as export approval procedures were still pending. Based on current market information, the relevant export processes were expected to be completed by mid-to-late November at the earliest. Considering the shipping cycle from the DRC to China is approximately 2–3 months, China's cobalt raw material supply is expected to remain structurally tight until Q1 2026, providing fundamental support for continued rises in cobalt intermediate product prices.

This week, spot prices for refined cobalt fluctuated downward. Supply side, conditions diverged, with smelters holding prices firm due to support from raw material costs. The domestic futures market weakened significantly mid-week, forcing traders to lower spot quotations accordingly. Demand side, downstream enterprises became more cautious in procurement amid heightened price volatility, maintaining a restocking pace based on rigid demand, with no significant increase in overall transaction volumes. Fundamentally, export approvals for cobalt intermediate products from the DRC have yet to be granted, and the tight supply-demand balance in the cobalt market has not fundamentally shifted in the short term. Moreover, no substantial bearish factors have emerged so far, suggesting this week’s sharp price fluctuations may have been influenced by capital activities. Notably, the price spread between refined cobalt and cobalt salts remains at a relatively high level. It is expected that refined cobalt prices will gradually converge toward the reverse smelting cost line of cobalt salts to achieve a reasonable regression of the spread. Whether refined cobalt can sustain its upward trend will depend on the driving effect of rising cobalt salt prices.