SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary: This week, the spot price of refined cobalt saw a slight increase. Supply side, production cuts at refined cobalt smelters continued, and social inventory was still being consumed at a steady pace. Demand side, orders from downstream producers did not show significant recovery, and they maintained a purchasing rhythm of scheduling production according to demand, with a lackluster willingness to purchase at high prices. However, some traders anticipated that subsequent policies in the DRC would be rolled out in the future, leading to increased activity in speculative trading. It is expected that this week, the price of refined cobalt may hold up well.

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Meeting Summary: On Monday, the price of ternary cathode material continued to decline. In terms of raw materials, the prices of nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate remained stable overall, while the price of manganese sulphate decreased slightly. However, the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide fell sharply, driving down the prices of various ternary cathode materials. Demand side, the performance of the large NEV market remained stable. Although individual automakers achieved good sales, providing some support for ternary cathode material, the increase was limited.

In April, China's NEV production and sales reached 1.251 million units and 1.226 million units respectively, up 43.8% and 44.2% YoY. NEV sales accounted for 47.3% of total new auto sales.

[SMM Analysis]On April 3, 2025, the United States imposed a reciprocal tariff of 125% on China, resulting in the tariff on energy storage battery cells exported from China to the United States reaching as high as 155.9% at one time, which almost brought the direct export of Chinese energy storage battery cells and energy storage systems to the United States to a standstill. This 90-day window period is bound to trigger a rush of exports by Chinese energy storage enterprises. Nevertheless, due to the advantages of Chinese energy storage battery cells in terms of production cost, cell performance, and production capacity and output, even under the tariff policy of 40.9%, the competitiveness of Chinese energy storage battery cells in the US market remains undiminished.

[SMM Analysis] On April 3, 2025, the US imposed a 125% reciprocal tariff on China, leading to a peak tariff rate of 155.9% on ESS battery cells exported from China to the US. This caused a near halt in the direct export of Chinese ESS battery cells and energy storage systems to the US. The 90-day window period is bound to trigger a surge in rushed exports by Chinese ESS enterprises. Despite this, due to the advantages of Chinese ESS battery cells in terms of production costs, battery cell performance, and capacity and production, their competitiveness in the US market remains strong even under a 40.9% tariff policy.

The 2025 Shanghai International Auto Show was grandly held at the National Exhibition and Convention Center, attracting nearly a thousand automotive enterprises from 26 countries and regions to participate. Compared with 2023, the number of new vehicles on display decreased from 141 to 97, with 67 of them being new energy vehicles, indicating that the automotive market has reached an inflection point of rationality and calmness. The absence of numerous overseas brands, such as Lamborghini, Maserati, Rolls-Royce, Hyundai, Jaguar Land Rover, and Subaru, signals that competition in the Chinese market has entered a critical stage—those who do not advance will fall behind.