China December Aluminium Output and Forecast for January

SHANGHAI, Jan 9 (SMM) –According to SMM statistics, China’s aluminium output was 3.562 million mt in December (31 days), an increase of 3.6% YoY. Although domestic aluminium operating capacity increased slightly MoM in December, the electrolytic cells in Yunnan that were shut down previously no longer produced aluminium liquid. In December, the average daily domestic aluminium production dropped by more than 3,800 mt MoM to around 114,900 mt. In 2023, the domestic aluminum output totaled 41.513 million mt, a YoY increase of 3.6%. In December, the domestic aluminium liquid alloying ratio remained high, only some aluminium smelters in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and other regions saw an increase in the proportion of ingots. Aluminium smelters in other regions mostly executed long-term aluminium liquid contracts, striving to complete the annual aluminium liquid alloying target. The proportion of aluminium liquid rose slightly. SMM estimated that the proportion of aluminium liquid alloying in the industry increased by 0.7 points MoM to around 74.1% in December. According to SMM aluminium liquid ratio data, the domestic aluminium ingot volume in December decreased by 20% YoY. The total amount of aluminium ingot produced in 2023 was approximately 12.06 million mt, a YoY decrease of 11.3%.
Changes in capacity: In December, domestic aluminium operating capacity was largely stable. During the month, power supply and demand in southwest and other regions were stable. Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia and other regions experienced tight power loads due to cold weather, but aluminium industry was less affected. Only Sichuan, Shanxi and some companies carried out a small amount of maintenance, totaling approximately 30,000 mt. In terms of new capacity: In December, all the remaining new capacity of Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua was put into operation smoothly, and other new projects have no commissioning plans in the short term. As of the end of December, according to SMM statistics, the installed aluminium capacity in China was about 45.19 million mt, while the operating capacity was around 41.98 million mt, and the operating rate grew by 0.2 points MoM to 92.9%.
Production forecast: In January 2024, there is no severe power supply shortage in Yunnan and other regions. It is expected that aluminium production in the province may be largely stable. We have not heard of any large-scale maintenance or production plans among other enterprises. SMM predicts domestic aluminium operating capacity may stabilize at around 42 million mt by January. The average daily domestic aluminium production in January will remain stable. The total domestic aluminium production in January (31 days) is expected to be around 3.56 million mt, a YoY increase of 4.2%.