Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,626/mt, initially touched a high of $9,665/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session, and ended rangebound at $9,607/mt by the close, down 1.26%.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: New Round of Tariff Hikes Implemented, Aluminum Prices to Remain Under Pressure in the Short Term] From the macro perspective, the US has implemented a new round of tariff hikes, involving major trading partners such as Canada and Brazil. The escalation of trade barriers has heightened concerns about global economic growth, negatively impacting the demand outlook for industrial metals. Although domestic manufacturing data shows structural optimization, the market remains cautious about the effectiveness of subsequent policy stimulus. On the supply side, domestic operating aluminum capacity remains stable, with the proportion of liquid aluminum pulling back and an increase in casting ingot volume, leading to more marketable supplies and a continuous buildup of social inventory, which suppresses aluminum price increases. On the cost side of the aluminum industry, costs remained stable during the week, with no significant changes in the raw material segment. However, with the center of aluminum prices moving downward, the industry's average profit margin narrowed by approximately 149 yuan/mt. On the demand side, the off-season atmosphere persists downstream, with spot purchases made as needed and spot premiums struggling to rise. The PV, NEV, and home appliance sectors remain in the off-season. Despite the decline in aluminum prices, there has been no significant improvement trend in the orders on hand at processing plants. In terms of inventory, according to SMM statistics, on August 4, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum stood at 564,000 mt, an increase of 20,000 mt from Thursday last week. Against the backdrop of the off-season, the expectation of inventory buildup remains strong. Overall, domestically, the favorable macro atmosphere remains unchanged, and the "anti-rat race" sentiment has dissipated. Attention will now turn to the impact of the Sino-US negotiation results. On the fundamental side, with the release of supply increments and the suppression of consumption during the off-season, the expectation of inventory buildup remains strong. Spot premiums and discounts are expected to remain weak, and aluminum prices are anticipated to remain under pressure. Subsequent focus should be on changes in inventory and demand.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Weakened Cost Support Coupled with Sluggish Demand Leads to Weak Consolidation of ADC12 Prices] Yesterday, aluminum prices dropped back slightly, and the secondary aluminum market maintained a stable pattern, with SMM ADC12 prices holding steady at 20,100 yuan/mt. Recently, end-use consumption has been sluggish, and actual transactions have been sluggish amid weak demand. However, the consistently high purchasing prices of aluminum scrap have provided support for prices. Overall, cost support has led to a relatively moderate decline in ADC12 prices this week, with the discount range between ADC12 and A00 narrowing. However, under the pressure of the off-season demand, there is significant resistance to price increases. In the short term, cost support, weak demand, and high inventory pressures are competing with each other, and ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound.

In terms of domestic bauxite supply, according to SMM's calculations, China's bauxite production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 4.6% MoM and 7.4% YoY. China’s domestic bauxite production remained relatively stable, and it is expected that there will be limited supply increases in the short term.

[SMM Analysis: Aluminum cost fell 1.7% MoM in July，Some aluminum smelters reported a slight increase in electricity fees in August.] According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in July 2025 was 16,261 yuan/mt, down 1.7% MoM and 5.8% YoY. During the period, alumina prices were boosted by macro policies such as "anti-rat race" competition, but due to the low absolute price at the beginning of July, the monthly average alumina price in July fell MoM, and its cost-supporting effect became evident in August.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,626/mt overnight, initially climbed to a high of $9,665/mt, then fluctuated downward to hit a low of $9,580.5/mt during the session, and maintained rangebound fluctuations before finally closing at $9,607/mt, down 1.26%, with trading volume reaching 47,000 lots and open interest at 271,000 lots.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Secondary Aluminum PMI Remained Below the 50 Mark in July, and the Market in August Continued to Be Hindered by the Off-Season Demand] Yesterday, aluminum prices dropped back slightly, and the secondary aluminum market maintained a stable pattern, with SMM ADC12 prices holding steady at 20,100 yuan/mt. Recently, end-use consumption has been sluggish, and actual transactions have been sluggish amid weak demand. However, the consistently high purchasing prices of aluminum scrap have provided support for prices. Overall, cost support has led to a relatively moderate decline in ADC12 prices this week, with the discount to A00 narrowing. However, under the pressure of the off-season demand, there is significant resistance to price increases. In the short term, cost support, weak demand, and high inventory pressures are competing with each other, and ADC12 prices may continue to fluctuate rangebound.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Manufacturing Sector Sentiment Pulls Back, Short-Term Aluminum Prices Predominantly in the Doldrums] Overall, on the macro side, the US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the US dollar index remained strong. Domestically, policies related to "combating rat race competition" drove industrial metals higher, with the long-term tone of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth" remaining unchanged. On the fundamental side, amid the release of supply increments and the suppression of the off-season consumption, the expectation of inventory buildup remains strong. Additionally, recently, market sentiment towards policies such as "combating rat race competition" and "high-quality development" has cooled down, causing futures to jump initially and then pull back. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to predominantly experience a high-level pullback. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and market sentiment.

[SMM Analysis: Aluminum Wheel Exports "Three Consecutive Increases", Primary Aluminum Alloy Operating Rate Rebounds Against the Cycle in July] The preliminary operating rate of China's primary aluminum alloy industry in July was 51.5%. After excluding the impact of inconsistent operating days from June, it increased by 0.6% MoM, showing a "stronger-than-usual off-season" characteristic in monthly performance. The PMI of primary aluminum alloy in July reached 54.4%, rebounding significantly by 17.9 percentage points MoM from June, and surging above the 50 mark, indicating an unexpected rebound against the trend in the off-season industry. Breaking down the details...