SMM Analysis Of China Stainless Steel Import And Export Data In October And November 

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fail to Rebound on SHFE Nickel Boost; Stainless Steel Spot Trading Remains Sluggish According to SMM on September 1, SS futures extended the previous decline, pulling back further, with the low point briefly dipping to 13,775 yuan/mt. Although the market opened with a rebound attempt driven by stronger SHFE nickel, futures subsequently turned lower again. By the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 13,825 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures continued to pull back, and a mainstream stainless steel mill's agent further lowered quotes, dragging stainless steel spot prices lower. Under the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment, overall trading remained sluggish. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was at 13,895 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 475-875 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled mill-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell 100 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell 75 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, stainless steel futures showed an overall weak breakdown trend, with volatility intensifying and the price center continuing to shift lower. Futures were in the doldrums during the week. Midweek, an unexpected safety incident at a nickel-iron smelting line in east China briefly raised supply concerns, providing a short-lived...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Futures Extend Weakness and Break Below Support; Stainless Steel Spot Offers Hold Steady, Transactions Sluggish SMM reported on August 31 that SS futures extended their previous weak trend and continued to slide, breaking below the 13,900 yuan/mt mark. By the close, the most-traded SS contract closed at 13,890 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although stainless steel mills held guidance prices steady and most traders kept their offers stable, successive declines in SS futures further weakened market confidence; transactions remained sluggish and showed no sign of recovery before the peak season. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2610 was quoted at 13,865 yuan/mt, down 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 485-885 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was unchanged; for cold-rolled 304/2B mill-edge coils, the average price in Wuxi held steady and the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were unchanged; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were unchanged. This week, stainless steel futures overall showed a weak breakdown trend, with volatility intensifying and the price center shifting steadily lower. Futures were in the doldrums overall during the week. Midweek, an unexpected safety incident at a ferronickel smelting line in east China raised market supply concerns, briefly driving SS futures up in a rebound. However, the positive boost proved short-lived; the market's core bearish logic remained unchanged, and futures subsequently weakened again...

[SMM Analysis] Peak Season Expectations Fall Short, Stainless Steel Product Prices and Production Costs Both Decline, Steel Mills Continue to Incur Losses This week, stainless steel product prices and production costs pulled back in tandem, and stainless steel mills remained loss-making. For 304 cold-rolled stainless steel, the profit margin based on current raw materials this week was -0.37%, while that based on inventory raw materials was -0.98%. Nickel raw material side, high-grade NPI prices fell further this week. Expectations for a peak season recovery in stainless steel demand fell short. Coupled with the drag from falling SS futures and rising port inventories of high-grade NPI, market pessimism deepened further, transactions remained weak, some stainless steel mills were reported to have made 300-series production cuts, and NPI prices overall remained in the doldrums. As of this Friday, China's tax-inclusive landed price for 10-12% grade Indonesian high-grade NPI fell by 5.5 yuan/nickel unit to 1,126 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap prices were temporarily stable this week. During the week, SS futures trended lower, bearish sentiment spilled over to the spot market, stainless steel products and high-grade NPI weakened in tandem, and the overall market tone was bearish. Stainless steel scrap found support from its cost-substitution advantage, and its prices did not follow the decline in futures. However, cost support ultimately could not withstand fundamental pressure. Recovery expectations for the "September-October peak season" fell short, downstream demand was insufficient, steel mill profits narrowed, procurement attitudes were cautious, market expectations for a bullish turn in September futures were subdued, and overall transactions were sluggish. With multiple bearish factors stacking up, cost support continued to weaken. In the short term, stainless steel scrap lacked upward momentum, and the market was likely to remain weak. As of this Friday, mainstream 304 off-cuts in the Shanghai area, excluding tax, ...