SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On December 14

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2401 aluminum contract opened at 18385 yuan/mt, with high and low at 18500 yuan/mt and 18380 yuan/mt before closing at 18465 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt or 0.76%. LME aluminum opened at $2122.5/mt yesterday, with its high and low at $2147/mt and $2109/mt respectively before closing at $2145/mt, up 0.99%.
On the macro front, the market is beginning to bet on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year. There are growing expectations for the release of favorable policies in China at the end of the year, but it will still take time to transmit to the manufacturing industry and other sectors. In terms of fundamentals, there are no further changes expected on the supply side in the short term, and market trading logic generally focuses on the resilience of consumer demand in the off-season. Aluminum prices may be relatively weak, but should find support from falling stocks.