China’s unwrought aluminium alloy imports rose in October, while exports declined, future port arrivals to drop

According to the latest customs data, China imported 108,900 mt of unwrought aluminium alloy in October, up 9.2% YoY and 17.5% MoM. From January to October 2023, total import volume was 907,800 mt, down 15.9% YoY.
In October, export volume of unwrought aluminium alloy was 15,400 mt, down 15.6% YoY and 45.1% MoM. A total export volume from January to October was 206,100 mt, up 10.9% YoY.
In terms of imports, most of aluminium alloy ingots arriving at Chinese ports in October were orders from August and September. Domestic aluminium prices kept hiking in September, hitting above 19,000 yuan/mt, and ADC12 prices followed to increase. Meanwhile, overseas quotations were basically stable at $2,240-2,270/mt. Under this circumstance, the import window opened, and profits of ADC12 imports were as high as 800 yuan/mt, but narrowed to 300-500 yuan/mt, tracking swings of falling domestic prices after the National Day holiday.
Recently, there were rising overseas raw material prices and falling RMB exchange rate. Meanwhile, offers from Malaysia, South Korea and other regions hiked to $2,300/mt. Under this circumstance, ADC12 imports suffered losses, shutting down import window. Owing to booming auto consumption in Japan, Malaysia and other countries exported more aluminium alloy ingots to Japan and fewer to China. Therefore, the number of ADC12 arriving at Chinese ports may decrease.