Copper prices are expected to stop falling

Published: Dec 8, 2023 18:26

Source: SMM

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Fundamentally, market concerns over tight copper concentrate supply have been priced in. The high copper prices and high spot premiums severely inhibited downstream copper consumption.

Fundamentally, market concerns over tight copper concentrate supply have been priced in. The high copper prices and high spot premiums severely inhibited downstream copper consumption. While the support for copper prices from consumption weakened, inventories remained low. LME copper inventories continued to increase, rising again to over 180,000 mt during the week, driven mainly by Busan and Singapore warehouses. As LME copper prices fell more than Shanghai copper, the SHFE/LME price ratio rebounded to around 8.2, translating to healthy import profit against spot copper in Shanghai. Import losses against the SHFE front-month copper contract also turned into profits. In the week of December 11, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on December 13 will be a market focus. Any gains in the US dollar will be limited. And copper prices are expected to stop falling. LME copper prices will stand at $8,150-8,400/mt, and SHFE copper will trade at 67,000-68,500 yuan/mt. Falling copper prices may boost consumption. The price spread between front-month and next-month contracts is expected to rise further. Spot copper is expected to trade with discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 200 yuan/mt against the front-month contract.

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