Customs data shows that China's aluminum wire and cable exports reached 30,400 mt in December 2025, down 8.7% MoM but up 13.96% YoY. Full-year aluminum wire and cable exports in 2025 totaled 279,000 mt, up 42.91% YoY from 195,000 mt in 2024. In December, exports of aluminum steel core stranded wire reached 20,800 mt, accounting for 69% of the total, while other aluminum strand wire exports stood at 9,500 mt, making up 31%. For the full year of 2025, aluminum steel core stranded wire accounted for 63% of total exports, with other aluminum strand wire comprising 37%. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000)

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Prices Rise Slightly for Consecutive Sessions, Alloy Prices Remain Stable] A00 aluminum prices rose again by 30 yuan/mt to 23,740 yuan/mt, while SMM ADC12 prices held steady at 23,850 yuan/mt. Currently, aluminum prices maintain a slight rebound trend, but secondary aluminum market participants show weak willingness to adjust prices, keeping overall quotations stable. Approaching the Chinese New Year, secondary aluminum enterprises have gradually started raw material stocking plans. However, due to persistently high aluminum prices, market sentiment is dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, and enterprises have only slightly increased raw material inventories. Demand side, affected by price resistance and weak pre-holiday stocking demand, downstream procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, resulting in sluggish market trading activity. Overall, short-term secondary aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue fluctuating at highs. Although the seasonal off-season and high aluminum prices have suppressed market activity, adverse weather conditions have hindered the flow of raw materials, coupled with uncertainties in regional tax policies and supply tightening caused by environmental protection-driven production restrictions, collectively providing a floor for prices.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Sentiment Slows Down but Risks Remain, Aluminum Prices to Stay in the Doldrums in the Short Term] Overall, the easing of macro risk sentiment has provided a temporary bottom support for aluminum prices. However, constrained by high inventory levels, the upside potential remains limited. In the short term, aluminum prices lack strong upward momentum and will continue to operate in the doldrums.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Bullish Sentiment Cools Down, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Greenland Crisis Takes a Favorable Turn, Aluminum Prices Gain Phased Bottom Support] Overall, the easing of macro risk sentiment has provided phased bottom support for aluminum prices. However, the combination of loose supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation on the fundamental side forms a bearish mix, constraining the upside room for aluminum prices.