Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,851/mt overnight, fluctuated downward to test the low of $9,841/mt at the beginning of the session, then the center of copper prices moved straight up to probe $9,871/mt, followed by considerable fluctuations before finally closing at $9,867/mt, up 0.74%, with trading volume at 14,000 lots and open interest at 266,000 lots.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: China Imported 77,400 mt of Unwrought Aluminum Alloys in June, with Exports Increasing Slightly MoM] On Monday, the price of SMM ADC12 rose by 100 yuan/mt to 20,200 yuan/mt. The continuous upward trend in aluminum prices drove a general increase in aluminum scrap prices, further pushing up the cost of ADC12. There was a strong willingness to adjust prices in the market, with a general increase of 100-200 yuan/mt. However, actual consumption showed mediocre performance, and transactions were limited. Overall, the support of aluminum scrap costs for secondary aluminum prices strengthened in the short term, but weak demand coupled with high social inventory would constrain the upside room for prices of secondary aluminum alloys such as ADC12. It is expected that they will maintain a narrow and relatively strong trend in the short term.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Favourable macro front affects capital sentiment, aluminum prices fluctuate at highs in the short term] Overall, on the macro front, domestic policies related to "anti-rat race" competition have driven up industrial metals, and the long-term tone of "boosting consumption and stabilizing growth" remains unchanged; overseas macro uncertainties still persist. On the fundamental side, influenced by factors such as the rhythm of arrivals, inventory performance has fluctuated, but considering the release of incremental supply and the suppression of the off-season for consumption, the expectation of inventory buildup remains strong. Recently, capital sentiment has been strongly influenced by macro policies such as "anti-rat race" competition and "high-quality development," and it is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate at highs in the short term. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in inventory and capital sentiment.

Futures market: LME copper opened at $9,729/mt last Friday night, initially fluctuating rangebound and testing the low of $9,710/mt before gradually moving higher and probing $9,799/mt near the session close, eventually settling at $9,794.5/mt, up 1.2%.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures Hit New Highs, ADC12 Prices Rise Driven by Costs] On Friday, the aluminum price rally expanded further, and aluminum scrap prices rose amid tight supply, directly driving up the cost of recycled aluminum raw materials. Most secondary aluminum manufacturers took the opportunity to raise their quotes by 100 yuan/mt. The SMM ADC12 price increased by 100 yuan/mt to 20,100 yuan/mt, with the market sentiment for following the price increase being relatively positive. However, actual consumption remained sluggish, and downstream procurement enthusiasm was generally low.

Futures Market: On the previous trading day's night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2509 contract opened at 20,560 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,795 yuan/mt, a low of 20,560 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,770 yuan/mt, up 1.27% from the previous close. LME aluminum opened at $2,589.5/mt, with a high of $2,638.5/mt, a low of $2,582.5/mt, and closed at $2,638.0/mt, up 1.89%.

[SMM Analysis: Review of Domestic Aluminum Prices in H1 2025: "Unexpected Events" Frequently Occur, Aluminum Prices Remain Resilient]Under the influence of frequent "unexpected events" in both macro and fundamental aspects, aluminum prices fluctuated more severely in the first half of 2025. In Q1, the domestic fundamental situation was better than the off-season performance in previous years, providing support for aluminum futures and spot prices. In Q2, the Sino-US tariff battle intensified, causing aluminum futures and spot prices to plummet. However, upon reviewing the trend, it can be seen that after the market sentiment was digested, aluminum prices rebounded rapidly, demonstrating resilience. Additionally, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in the off-season from May to June decreased unexpectedly, leading aluminum futures and spot prices to rise strongly during the off-season, with outstanding performance. Overall, the center of aluminum prices in H1 2025 showed a trend of oscillating upward. The average spot aluminum price in H1 2025 was around 20,318 yuan/mt, up 2.6% from H1 2024.

According to SMM statistics, as of July 18th, the days of inventories at domestic aluminum rod plants stood at 9.33 days, a decrease of 0.61 days WoW. In terms of inventory ratio, the domestic aluminum rod plant inventory ratio was recorded at 1.33, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous week.

Currently, the downstream sector as a whole is under the shadow of the off-season atmosphere. The operating rate of the secondary alloy sector continues to decline. However, due to the pullback in the center of aluminum prices, there is differentiation among different sectors. The weekly operating rates of aluminum extrusion and aluminum wire and cable have slightly rebounded, driving marginal improvements in the industry's operating rate. The operating rate of the aluminum processing industry rose by 0.2 percentage points WoW to 58.8%.

Futures market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,606.5/mt, initially touched a low of $9,597/mt, then fluctuated upward rangebound, and finally closed at $9,678/mt, up 0.43%, with trading volume at 11,000 lots and open interest at 268,000 lots.