[Analysis by SMM: Upgraded Tariff Barriers in Mexico Present Resilience and Challenges for China's Aluminum Semis and Products Exports to Mexico] As a key participant in the global aluminum industry chain, China's aluminum semis and products exports to Mexico have shown a complex pattern of "resilience and challenges" coexisting amid recent trade frictions. In recent years, Sino-Mexican trade relations have become strained due to multiple unilateral tariff hikes and restrictive measures imposed by Mexico, creating a dynamic of "Mexico taking the initiative to apply pressure, while China responds with precise countermeasures." Combining SMM's exclusive monthly export data from 2023-2025 and the latest tariff policy updates from Mexico, we conduct an in-depth analysis from four dimensions: policy impact, data trends, causes and effects, and industry responses.

According to SMM statistics, as of October 31, 2025, the domestic days of inventories at aluminum rod plants were 7.6 days, an increase of 0.57 days WoW. Aluminum rod inventory continued to show a buildup trend, and the market oversupply situation saw no significant improvement. In terms of inventory ratio, the domestic in-factory inventory ratio for aluminum rod plants recorded 74.12%, up 4.04% WoW, and the pressure from inventory accumulation remained unrelieved.

Brief Comment: So far, an aluminum enterprise in Shandong has announced the November 2025 prebaked anode tender benchmark price, which rose by 222 yuan/mt MoM. Simultaneously, a major domestic prebaked anode sales company increased its sales price by 251 yuan/mt MoM. According to SMM data, as of October 31, China's comprehensive cost for prebaked anode increased to 5,125 yuan/mt, up 3.31% from September 30. The current raw material market is performing well, providing some support for prebaked anode prices. Particularly for petroleum coke, downstream demand is generally favorable, purchasing enthusiasm in the carbon industry is moderate, and demand from the anode material market for petroleum coke persists. Considering various factors, the price center for petroleum coke in November is expected to move higher. Against this backdrop, prebaked anode prices, directly supported by rising raw material costs, are expected to continue their upward trend. 

Overall, the petroleum coke market currently shows a pattern of tightening supply and increasing demand. At the month-end to early-month period, restocking needs for some enterprises became prominent. Coupled with expectations of higher prebaked anode prices in November boosting purchasing enthusiasm, SMM expects upward momentum for petroleum coke prices to persist in the short term.

Brief Comment: Cost side, rising fluorite and sulfuric acid prices form the core support for aluminum fluoride prices. Although the price of raw material aluminum hydroxide continues to weaken, the price increases of fluorite and sulfuric acid still provide strong support for the overall production cost of aluminum fluoride. Coupled with enterprises' reduced willingness to operate due to cost pressures, this further lays the foundation for price increases. Market expectations indicate that companies currently have a strong inclination to push prices higher. Under high cost pressures, aluminum fluoride prices are expected to have sufficient upward momentum in November. However, the final extent of the increase will depend on the pricing situation in downstream aluminum enterprise tenders.

[SMM Analysis]The October aluminum processing PMI fell to 48.9%—insufficient strength in the October peak season, re-entering contraction territory.