Cost reduction pressure from downstream and inventory build-up to weigh down PV glass prices in December

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver’s Five-Week Winning Streak Lifts Price by 1.5%; Jackson Hole Symposium Emerges as Short-Term Key Variable] This week, silver rose for five consecutive days, with the price center steadily moving up and the weekly chart forming a five-week winning streak. On the macro front, bullish factors dominated, as US Treasury buybacks and a weaker US dollar provided support, while a higher-than-expected PCE and elevated US bond yields weighed on prices. Spot trading concentrated at discounts, though month-end activity improved somewhat. Inventory buildup reached 87 mt, and ETF holdings edged up. Near-term focus turns to the policy signals from the Jackson Hole central bank symposium. Silver prices are expected to maintain wild swings.

This week, the macro front remained mixed, with an overall pattern of consolidation at highs. Early in the week, carrying forward the residual effect of the Ministry of Finance's expansion of government bond repurchases, alongside the weakening US dollar and ETF inflows, futures rose overall. Mid-week, futures consolidated at highs, as the escalation of the US-Canada tariff war boosted safe-haven sentiment and provided support. Late in the week, with PCE data being neutral to slightly hot, the easing of US-Iran tensions, and pre-Jackson Hole caution, futures pulled back. In the short term, inflation stickiness, high US Treasury yields, and policy uncertainty still pose pressure; however, the rising visibility of debt risks, intensifying trade frictions, and central bank gold purchases provide medium and long-term bottom support, limiting downside space. Focus on the Jackson Hole speech by Warsh and guidance from the September FOMC meeting.