MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (November 17)

[India Export] Indian HRC discussions for the GCC were centred at 520–540USD/tonne FOB India, with market participants considering this range realistic for concluding deals. Offers to Europe remained unchanged from yesterday at around 660USD/tonne CFR southern Europe. In Vietnam, the recent incident at Formosa Ha Tinh could temporarily affect domestic HRC availability, potentially allowing Indian suppliers to step in and fill any resulting supply gap. India’s domestic HRC market was also unchanged at around 628–649USD/tonne (60,000–62,000INR/tonne) EXW Mumbai.

[SMM Stainless Steel Scrap Weekly Review] Cost Advantages Fail to Halt Decline, Stainless Steel Scrap Prices Pull Back Under Pressure This week, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices in east China pulled back, with a quotation range of 10,050-10,150 yuan/mt. In Foshan, 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts prices fell in tandem, with a price range of 10,000-10,300 yuan/mt. From a raw material cost perspective, the production cost of stainless steel using only stainless steel scrap is about 14,185.33 yuan/mt, while the cost using only high-grade NPI reaches 14,730.06 yuan/mt. The two still maintain a large cost spread, and the substitution advantage of stainless steel scrap remains significant. This week, stainless steel scrap prices consolidated and pulled back overall. During the week, SS futures fell further and hit bottom, with bearish sentiment continuing to build and spilling over into the spot market, dragging spot prices of stainless steel finished products down as well. The substitute raw material high-grade NPI also traded in the doldrums, forming a linked downward pattern across futures, finished products, and raw materials, leaving overall market sentiment bearish. Although stainless steel scrap still holds substantial economic advantages over high-grade NPI, stainless steel mills are currently facing inverted production costs and mounting profit pressure. Mills have a strong desire to bargain down raw material prices and continued to push for lower stainless steel scrap quotations, ultimately causing scrap prices to pull back this week. Overall, the cost substitution advantage is hard-pressed to offset multiple bearish pressures from fundamentals. Although the market is currently in the traditional September-October peak season, actual downstream end-user consumption remains persistently weak, and expectations for a peak-season recovery have completely fallen through, weakening overall market confidence. Dragged by demand, stainless...

The EU flat steel market officially entered the "full realization phase" ignited by the resonance of policy and supply this week. The EU's brand-new import regime and "Melt and Pour" traceability new regulations officially took effect on September 1, compounded by court-ordered slab production suspensions at Italy’s ADI and Ferriera Valsider declaring force majeure, creating a dual shock of policy tightening and supply disruptions that instantly broke market defenses. Northwest European HRC quotes surged to 738 EUR/tonne EXW (857 USD/tonne EXW) during the week, while the Italian HRC index climbed synchronously to 733 EUR/tonne EXW (852 USD/tonne EXW). Mainstream mills aggressively raised ex-works prices by 20–30 EUR/tonne; a major Northern European service center locked in 500 tonnes of actual orders (October shipment) at 760 EUR/tonne DDP (883 USD/tonne). On the import front, Italian HRC CIF import prices jumped to 669 USD/tonne CIF, imported slabs climbed to 560 USD/tonne CFR, with Chinese origins transacted at 570 USD/tonne CFR, widening internal-external price spreads further to yearly highs. The long products segment maintained isolated softness amidst general resilience—Italian domestic rebar edged down 5 EUR to 690 EUR/tonne EXW (802 USD/tonne), and forward cost uncertainties stemming from the advance implementation of CBAM began to disrupt long-term contract pricing for 2027. Looking ahead to next week, the dual push of the new regulations and supply outages remains intact; the degree to which mills can sustain high quotes and generate volume will dictate the upward slope, keeping HRC strong.