China Silicon metal output in October and forecast for November

China produced 392,500 mt of silicon metal in October, up 36,200 mt or 10.2% MoM and 20.8% YoY, bringing total output in the first ten months of 2023 up to 3.0477 million mt, up 5.46% YoY, according to SMM statistics.

In October, silicon metal output in Yunnan was stable, while that in most other production areas increased ranging from nearly 1,000 mt to 10,000 mt, most notably in Xinjiang whose output hiked by 22,000 mt MoM.

Silicon supply appeared ample in north China and weak in south China in November. There was high operating rate and ramp-up of small amount of new capacity in the north and northwest regions. The operating rate in the south-western region dropped. Power cuts in turns in Yunnan is expected to lower silicon output by about 10,000 mt. On the other hand, a 0.07-0.12 yuan/kWh rise in electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan and elevated charcoal prices pushed up costs by 1,200-1,500 yuan/mt. In addition, silicon prices softened. Under this circumstance, some silicon producers cut productions. When Sichuan enters the dry season on November 25, electricity prices will rise again. Therefore, silicon metal output is expected to inch down in November, and will further shrink in December amid falling operating rate.