Growing inventory to keep SHFE aluminium prices in check

Macro trends show weakening US data, persistent Eurozone recessionary pressures, sluggish overseas economies amid high interest rates, a fluctuating high-level US dollar index, and pressured commodities. China's focus remains on real estate market stabilization and local government debt resolution, suggesting bullish policy expectations. Fundamentals indicate Yunnan's production cuts and tightening aluminium supply in the future. However, off-peak downstream consumption, rising aluminium inventory, and weak spot market trading will keep short-term SHFE aluminium in check. In the week ending November 17, the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract may range between 18,900-19,600 yuan/mt, and LME aluminium may fluctuate at $2,220-2,300/mt. Monitoring downstream operations is crucial.