According to foreign news on October 30, the World Bank pointed out in its latest "Commodity Market Outlook" report that copper prices fell by 1% in the third quarter of 2023 due to sufficient supply, increasing inventories and weak demand.
Weaker-than-expected demand from the real estate sector and deterioration in demand in other major economies were partially offset by demand for copper from clean technologies, including electric vehicles, wind and solar power equipment, and infrastructure (including the construction of electric vehicle charging capacity).
On the supply side, production disruptions in Chile, China and Indonesia supported prices in the first half of the year.
Prices are expected to fall a further 5% in 2024, reflecting weak global demand and strong supply growth.
Mined copper production will grow strongly in the second half of 2023 and throughout 2024, driven by new projects and expansion of existing projects in several countries, including Chile, Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, Peru, Russia and Uzbekistan.
Prices should rebound by 9% in 2025 as global demand recovers and the green transition intensifies.
The main demand drivers in the coming years will come from electric vehicles, renewable energy and related grid infrastructure, which will require additional investment in copper mines and refining capacity.
Geographical concentration of production and refining, declining ore grades, cumbersome permitting procedures for new mines, and capital cost inflation will all pose upside risks to copper prices in the medium term.
