[Shanghai Spot Copper] According to SMM data, the inventory of copper cathode in Shanghai was only 89,600 mt on the day, a decrease of 7,700 mt compared to the last trading day before the holiday. Amid the continuous destocking trend, spot premiums for SHFE copper will remain firm. However, attention should be paid to the approaching contract rollover and the impact of changes in the price spread between futures contracts on the premiums.

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the non-ferrous metal market.

Today, spot #1 copper cathode in North China was trading at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to parity against the front-month contract, with an average discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The transaction prices ranged from 77,720 to 78,030 yuan/mt, with an average price of 77,875 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Mixed US Macro Data, LME Copper Prices First Decline Then Rise] On April 30, spot prices of SMM #1 copper cathode against the 2505 contract for the current month were reported at a premium of 200 yuan/mt to 260 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt MoM. On the last trading day before the holiday, both buying and selling sentiment in the spot market declined, mainly because most traders started their holidays early. However, there were still downstream buyers making just-in-time procurement in the market, leading to a continued rise in premiums...

[SMM Analysis] Macro side, during the Labour Day holiday, US stocks rebounded, and European and Asian stock indices warmed up, with short-term corrections in expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. The US non-farm payrolls data for April outperformed expectations, while the unemployment rate did not rise significantly, indicating moderate resilience in the US economy. However, the Q1 GDP YoY decline of 0.3% exposed the current state of weak domestic demand. Structurally, the "rush imports" behavior of US enterprises has exacerbated inventory pressure.