SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On October 24

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2311 aluminum contract opened at 19000 yuan/mt, with its low and high at 18870 yuan/mt and 19000 yuan/mt before closing at 18905 yuan/mt, up 55 yuan/mt or 0.29%. LME aluminum opened at $2181.5/mt on Monday, with its low and high at $2162/mt and $2189/mt respectively before closing at $2176/mt, down 0.18%.
There are many macro disturbing factors: the US dollar index fell sharply and crude oil prices also fell, but the short-term Fed rate hike expectations swing and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict intensified market uncertainty. Operating aluminum capacity in China is now 42.94 million mt, close to a peak, meaning no significant growth will be seen in short term. Downstream orders improved after the National Day holiday, but fell short of expectations. Aluminum ingot and billet pick-ups from social warehouses decreased last week. Aluminum prices are expected to move rangebound in the short term.