Rare Earth Prices And Output Both Rose In September, Can Peak Season Expectations Be Materialised In October? [SMM Monthly Outlook]

SHANGHAI, Oct 19(SMM) – From August to September, rare earths continued the upward trend. Entering October, market confidence was lifted, indicating a good start to the market outlook. The listing prices of multiple Northern Rare Earth products increased slightly in October, while rare earth concentrate transaction prices in Q4 were raised. On October 9, the first trading day after the holiday, rare earth prices experienced a significant increase. However, with the delivery of downstream long-term orders, market transactions were thin in the past two trading days, causing a slight adjustment in rare earth prices. For the rare earth industry, market performance in September was acceptable with rising prices and output of Pr-Nd oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide. Can the expectations of October be realized?

The price growth of Pr-Nd oxide increased was 4% in September, and domestic production increased by 3.8% MoM in September.

In terms of light rare earths, according to SMM quotations, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on August 31 was 500,000 yuan/mt, and that on September 28 was 520,000 yuan/mt. In September, the price increased by 20,000 yuan/mt MoM, or 4%.

In September 2023, domestic Pr-Nd oxide production was 6,317 mt, up 3.8% MoM. The output in Sichuan and Guangdong witnessed substantial growth. Output in other regions showed minor changes from August. According to SMM research, the production reduction and suspension caused by the Universiade in Sichuan in August resumed normally in September. The local production of Pr-Nd oxide rose by approximately 28% MoM. The previous insufficient operating rate of separation plants in Guangdong due to equipment problems basically recovered, and the local production of Pr-Nd oxide increased by approximately 28.6% MoM.

The price of dysprosium oxide increased by 8.69% in September, and domestic production in September gained 1% MoM.

In terms of heavy rare earths, taking the trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM quotations, the average price of dysprosium oxide on August 31 was 2,475 yuan/kg, and the average price on September 28 was 2,690 yuan/kg. Its average price in August increased by 215 yuan/kg, and the growth in September was 8.69%.

Domestic dysprosium oxide production in September 2023 was 219 mt, up 1% MoM, with the main increase reflected in Guangdong. According to SMM, the production of the separation plants in Guangdong continued to recover further, and coupled with the promotion of order volume growth in September, dysprosium oxide output increased by 9% MoM.

The price of terbium oxide increased by 6.21% in September, and domestic production rose by 3.8% MoM in September.

According to SMM quotations, the average price of terbium oxide on August 31 was 8,050 yuan/kg, and the average price on September 28 was 8,550 yuan/kg. Its average price in September increased by 500 yuan/kg, or 6.21% MoM.

In September 2023, domestic terbium oxide production stood at 45 mt, up 3.8% MoM. The month-on-month increase in output in Guangdong and Guangxi was relatively large. According to SMM statistics, the production of separation plants in Guangdong resumed, and its output in September increased by approximately 8% MoM. The production in Guangxi also climbed to a certain extent due to rising orders, with output up 29% MoM.

Market outlook: It is expected that rare earth prices will maintain a strong trend driven by the traditional peak season.

According to SMM research, the traditional peak season effect was prominent in September. Magnetic material factories and metal factories attracted more orders in September, and some metal factories added in-production electric furnaces due to new orders. The increase in orders also supported the growth of rare earth prices and production in September.

The second batch of total quotas for rare earth mining, smelting, and separation released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources in 2023 was 120,000 mt and 115,000 mt respectively. According to SMM statistics, among the second batch of rare earth mining quotas, rock-type (light) rare earths were 111,793 mt, a year-on-year increase of 10.09%; ion-adsorption type (medium-heavy) rare earths were 8,207 mt, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%. In terms of the specific classification of the total rare earth mining indicators in the past five years, the quotas of light rare earths in the past five years have maintained an increasing trend. The year-on-year growth rate in 2020 was 7.09%, 23.17% in 2021, 28.22% in 2022, and is estimated to be 15.72% in 2023. The growth rate of light rare earth mining quotas in 2023 narrowed compared with 2022.

Entering October, taking into account the second batch of rare earth mining quotas, it is expected that the supply of rare earths may increase to a certain extent in the future, which will also affect the trend of rare earth prices. According to SMM’s latest research, as companies successively finished long-term orders’ delivery this month, the current upstream and downstream price battle was fuelled, which was obviously reflected in the average price trend of Pr-Nd oxide. Boosted by market confidence, its average price surged by 12,500 yuan/mt on October 9. But there were slight downward adjustments on October 10, October 11, and October 13, with a cumulative drop of 4,000 yuan/mt in three trading days, caused by the stalemate between upstream and downstream.

When will the price fluctuations caused by the price bargaining between the upstream and downstream end? SMM recommends paying attention to the price transactions of long-term orders at the end of October.