【SMM Analysis: Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market's Supply-Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025】Supply Side: Multiple Factors Exacerbate Shortages, Global Tin Ore Supply is Tight In Q1, global tin ore supply was impacted by multiple shocks, including geopolitical tensions and natural disasters: Wa Region, Myanmar: Due to the 7.9 magnitude earthquake that occurred on March 28, the risk of landslides in mining areas surged, and transportation routes were damaged. As the world's third-largest tin producer (accounting for 12%-15% of global supply), Wa Region's production resumption plans were forced to be postponed, and it is expected to resume normal production at the earliest by the end of Q2...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 9 May, 2025

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Bulls and Bears in the SHFE Tin Market Lock Horns Around the 260,000 yuan/mt Threshold, with Sluggish Spot Market Transactions] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened at 262,500 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 261,480 yuan/mt. The price fluctuated and consolidated during the session. In the morning, non-ferrous metals were under pressure overall. The most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 259,980 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.26% intraday. Trading volume and open interest decreased slightly, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

UK and US Reach Trade Agreement: Retain 10% Base Tariff on UK Imports; SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Rangebound [SMM Tin Morning News] (1) NDRC: Currently Improving Long-Term Mechanism for Private Enterprises to Participate in National Major Projects; Will Launch High-Quality Projects with a Total Investment of Approximately RMB 3 Trillion This Year. (Bullish ★) (2) Huawei's HarmonyOS PC Makes Its Debut, Breaking Through in Domestic PC Operating Systems. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① UK and US Reach Trade Agreement: Retain 10% Base Tariff on UK Imports, Expand Market Access for Both Sides, Eliminate Tariffs on UK Steel and Aluminum, Implement Zero Tariffs on US Agricultural Products, and Apply Tiered Tariffs on UK Automobile Imports; ② US Trade Representative: May Need to Take Enforcement Actions Against Imported Services; ③ Trump: UK Agrees to Purchase Agreement for Boeing Aircraft Worth $10 Billion; ④ US Commerce Secretary: Focusing on the Next Major Power, Hopes to Reach a Trade Agreement with a Major Asian Country; ⑤ If Negotiations Fail, EU Plans to Impose Additional Tariffs on US Products Worth €95 Billion; ⑥ Indian Official: Free Trade Agreement with the UK to Be Signed in Three Months.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: US Dollar Index Fluctuates at Highs, Suppressing Non-Ferrous Metal Prices; SHFE Tin Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) jumped initially and then pulled back today. In the morning session, it surged to 262,000 yuan/mt, buoyed by expectations of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts by the PBOC and the US-China economic and trade talks. However, it pulled back in the afternoon session due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and a stronger US dollar, eventually closing at 261,480 yuan/mt, down slightly by 0.16% from the previous trading day. Total open interest in the night session declined slightly to 31,000 lots. Concerns Over the US Economy: Q1 GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ, core PCE inflation rose to 3.5%, consumer confidence fell to a record low, and the manufacturing PMI pulled back to 48.7, indicating intensifying downward pressure on the economy. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, pushing back interest rate cut expectations to July. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, suppressing the non-ferrous metal sector. On the demand side, solder companies' post-holiday orders remained stable but without significant increases. The US's electronic tariff policies on China suppressed downstream restocking expectations. Trading in the spot market was mediocre, with traders reporting low inquiry willingness. Spot transaction prices ranged from 260,500 to 262,500 yuan/mt. However, smelters held onto their prices and were reluctant to sell, with downstream companies primarily making just-in-time procurement, and low-priced supplies were favoured...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 8 May, 2025

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Trump May Announce a Trade Deal Between the US and the UK on Thursday; SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Upward] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) fluctuated upward today. In the morning session, it continued to rise, buoyed by news that US President Trump was expected to announce a trade deal between the US and the UK on Thursday. It ultimately closed at 263,000 yuan/mt, up slightly by 0.42% from the previous trading day. Trading volume and open interest decreased slightly by 1,443 lots, with total open interest reaching 30,500 lots.

US Fed Maintains Interest Rates Unchanged for Third Consecutive Time; SHFE Tin Prices Open Lower and Continue to Decline in Night Session [[SMM Tin Morning News]] Macro: (1) "One Bank, One Bureau, One Commission" Makes Major Announcement, Releases Multiple Market-Stabilizing Measures Including RRR Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts. (Bullish ★) (2) The US Fed maintains interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, emphasizing in its statement the heightened risks of rising inflation and unemployment. Powell highlights the low cost of uncertainty and continued wait-and-see approach, indicating no rush to cut interest rates. Powell also states that he has no intention of proactively meeting with Trump, and that the latter's calls for interest rate cuts will not hinder the Fed's work. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① The EU's trade chief indicates that the European Commission will announce preparations for the next round of countermeasures against US tariffs on Thursday. ② The EU states that it will impose tariffs on Boeing and US automobiles if trade negotiations fail. ③ The word "tariffs" was mentioned more than 20 times during Powell's press conference.