Aluminum Prices Continue To Fluctuate In Parallel With Low Inventory And Supply Pressure

On Wednesday, the main force of Shanghai Aluminum rushed up and fell back to 18315 yuan/mt, which was unchanged from yesterday. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at night, LME aluminum futures fell 0.12% to $2,140/mt.

The supply of goods in the spot market is tight, and the rising water is rising.

On the macro front, the minutes of the Fed meeting showed that inflation risks may require further tightening of policy; two Fed officials tend to keep interest rates steady in July. Most Fed officials see "significant" upside risks to inflation. Several participants warned of the risk of accidentally overtightening policy, with some seeing economic risks becoming more balanced. US industrial output rose by 1% month-on-month in July, which is expected to rise by 0.3%, and the previous value fell by 0.8%. The revised value of GDP in the second quarter of the eurozone increased by 0.6% year-on-year, which is expected to increase by 0.6%, and the initial value increased by 0.6%.

According to industry news, a large-scale power outage occurred in Brazil on August 15, affecting aluminum and alumina plants in the northern part of the country. Brazil's Alumar, which is owned by Alcoa, has also been affected. A spokesman said they were assessing the impact of the outage on the alumina refinery and smelter to get production back to normal as soon as possible.

Low inventory and the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing rose slightly for the third consecutive week, giving aluminum fundamentals some resilience. However, there are also certain expectations for increased supply and accumulated inventory, and pressure on aluminum prices also exists. Aluminum prices are thus expected to remain rangebound in the near term.

Operation suggestion: cautious.