SMM review and forecast for HRC market (Aug 7)

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 24 Jun , 2026

[SMM Steel] Turkish rebar offers today held stable at 576 USD/tonne EXW. Due to the highly uncertain geopolitical situation in the Middle East (despite the US extending the sanctions waiver for Iranian crude oil shipments until August 21), both buyers and sellers generally maintain a wait-and-see stance. SMM research indicates that rebar offers from some mills in the Marmara region are slightly higher at around 585-590 USD/tonne EXW, though these usually come with extended payment terms. The export market continues to be sluggish, with Turkish rebar export offers dropping by 5 USD/tonne today to 580 USD/tonne FOB. Currently, high borrowing costs and a weak lira continue to pressure the market. In the short term, as end-of-quarter debt repayment deadlines approach, companies remain focused on generating cash flow, meaning mills are likely to offer further price cuts in the coming weeks.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report] SS Futures Decline Consecutively; Spot Stainless Steel Traders Sell Actively at a Discount to Boost Shipments According to SMM on June 24, SS futures continued to trend lower and weaken. Nonferrous metals futures extended their decline, with SS moving down in tandem. Near the close, news emerged that Indonesia might raise its RKAB nickel ore quota, causing SHFE nickel and SS to pull back further. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,720 yuan/mt. In the spot market, affected by the consecutive decline in SS futures, market sentiment was generally weak. To reduce their own inventories, spot traders had a strong willingness to sell, and selling at a discount became more frequent. Stainless steel spot quotes declined accordingly, but the sluggish trading remained hard to change. For the most-traded SS futures contract, at 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was quoted at 14,740 yuan/mt, down 190 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 330-830 yuan/mt. In the spot market, cold-rolled 201/2B coil average price in Wuxi remained unchanged; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with rough edges, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and in Foshan by 25 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi dropped by 100 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was quoted unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices experienced wild swings, as macro expectations outside China repeatedly disturbed the futures, intensifying the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the market. Overall, the futures trend was dominated by macro factors, trading fluctuated with sentiment, and supply...