SMM review and forecast for HRC market (Aug 7)

Published: Aug 7, 2023 10:18

Source: SMM

Save

HRC futures prices retraced down after a surge last Friday, closing down 0.15% at 3,990 yuan/mt.

HRC futures prices retraced down after a surge last Friday, closing down 0.15% at 3,990 yuan/mt. In the spot market, mainstream offers for HRC this week fell by 50-100 yuan/mt. This week, HRC supply still stood low, while prolonged high HRC prices further lessened terminal demand, and HRC social inventory picked up significantly. In the follow-up, with restart of some steel mills from maintenance, maintenance-induced HRC production losses will drop significantly. Under such circumstance, pressure on the supply side may increase significantly. On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to remain weak as a whole. In addition, floods in the north will also have a certain impact on downstream demand. On the macro side, although there were many favorable macro policies, it will take time for the policies to be implemented. Besides, there was a question over the timing and the strength of the crude steel production reduction policy. HRC prices may fluctuate in a wide range of minus 100 yuan/mt to plus 100 yuan/mt, and HRC 2310 contract is expected to run in the range of 3,850-4,100 yuan/mt.

Market forecast Market review

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

1 hour ago

[SMM Steel] ASEAN hot-rolled coil prices have fallen but have yet to attract Vietnamese buyers

[Vietnam] Dragged down by sluggish trading, ASEAN hot-rolled coil (HRC) import prices fell to 550 USD/tonne CFR, with some Indian sellers proactively conceding margins and lowering their HRC offers to 545 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam. However, due to weak expectations and extremely low purchasing intent among Vietnamese buyers, this price reduction still failed to attract any substantial buying interest.

1 hour ago

6.24 SMM Global Steel Daily Report

[Billet] Today, export billet quotations remained stable. Currently, mill quotes were on the high side, generally above $470/mt, while market tradable prices were mostly at $465-467/mt. Steel mills had a strong willingness to hold prices firm due to cost considerations, making it quite difficult to close export billet orders. [Rebar] Today, rebar export FOB quotations were basically stable. According to market feedback, recently, some steel mills, due to maintenance of blast furnaces and associated construction steel rolling lines, controlled the pace of taking rebar export orders. Meanwhile, wait-and-see sentiment among overseas clients was strong, leading to a noticeable shrinkage in overall export rebar orders. [Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices of HRC and other sheets & plates edged down day-on-day but held steady, with HRC transactions at $492-501/mt. Recently, due to declines in domestic futures and adjustments in the yuan exchange rate, some distant countries began to increase inquiry and purchasing demand. In terms of semi-finished products, short-term inquiry and purchasing willingness was low due to high domestic prices and the fact that overseas buyers had already made a certain amount of purchases earlier.

1 hour ago

[SMM Steel] Hoa Phat Develops High-Strength Steel for Auto and Heavy Equipment

Vietnamese steelmaker Hoa Phat has produced S700MC high-strength hot-rolled steel plate for load-bearing structures in trucks, trailers, special-purpose vehicles and heavy equipment. The grade offers strength, formability and weldability, supporting weight reduction and higher load capacity. The move expands Hoa Phat’s value-added steel portfolio and reduces reliance on imported advanced grades. "

1 hour ago