SMM Morning Comment For Aluminium Market On August 4

SHANGHAI, Aug 4 (SMM) –

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2309 aluminium contract opened at 18,415 yuan/mt, with the lowest and highest prices at 18,390 yuan/mt and 18,495 yuan/mt before closing at 18,480 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt or 0.16%. LME aluminium opened at $2,213/mt on Thursday, with its high and low at $2,233/mt and $2,197/mt respectively before closing at $2,232.5/mt, an increase of $22/mt or 1.02%.

On the macro level, the US non-farm productivity rebounded sharply in the second quarter, reining in growth in labor costs and improving the US inflation situation. In terms of fundamentals, the resumption of aluminium production in Yunnan is speeding up. At present, the amount of resumed production is mainly liquid aluminum, and there is no large aluminum ingot oversupply pressure.

During the week, the actual arrival of aluminum ingots was lower than expected, so the destocking of aluminum ingots continued and the low inventory will support aluminum prices. On the demand side, favorable policies have promoted real estate, automobile, and other related consumption to gradually pick up, but the impact of follow-up policies still needs further observation. In addition, some end-users have asked employees to take a break recently against slack demand in summer, so the downstream demand may be weakened. In the short term, SHFE aluminium will remain volatile, and consumption and inventory still need attention.