SMM daily review and forecast for iron ore market

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Present Mixed Bullish and Bearish Factors, SHFE Aluminum Maintains Fluctuating Trend] On the night of November 4, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract opened higher but came under pressure and pulled back, then entered a period of consolidation, ultimately stabilizing at a high level. The 2512 contract opened at 21,395 yuan/mt, reached a high of 21,440 yuan/mt and a low of 21,335 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, down 0.28% from the previous close. From a technical perspective, the MA moving average system showed a bullish alignment (MA5: 21,403 > MA10: 21,320 > MA20: 21,140.25 > MA60: 20,845.83), while the MACD on the 4-hour candlestick chart maintained a golden cross (DIFF: 125.94, DEA: 115.85). In terms of trend, although prices at the night session pulled back from the intraday high, they ultimately closed at 21,405 yuan/mt, above most short-term moving averages, indicating that the current upward trend remains technically intact, though short-term pullback risks should be noted.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Low Inventory and Weak Consumption at a Stalemate, Lead Prices Remain in the Doldrums] China's "16th Five-Year Plan" Proposal Full Text: Adopt Unconventional Measures to Comprehensively Promote Decisive Breakthroughs in Key Core Technologies Across the Entire Chain in Key Areas. Recently, medium and large lead-acid battery enterprises are expected to implement concentrated production cuts or maintenance from late October to early November, with lead consumption anticipated to weaken...

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Concentrated Production Cuts by Lead-Acid Battery Enterprises, Lead Prices Expected to Remain in the Doldrums] Wang Yi Holds Phone Conversation with US Secretary of State Rubio: Hopes Both Sides Move Towards Each Other to Prepare for High-Level China-US Interactions. Following last week's surge in lead prices, lead-acid battery enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm has significantly weakened, and inventory in social warehouses in some regions has stopped destocking...

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) held a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on October 7, 2025. Government representatives and industry advisors from major copper-producing and copper-consuming countries worldwide attended to discuss key issues affecting the global copper market. The following is the ICSG's assessment of the global refined copper supply-demand balance:  

SMM Analysis：As the National Day and Mid-Autumn holidays approach, SMM conducted a survey on the operational status of downstream galvanized sheet enterprises during the holiday. This survey covered 20 galvanized sheet enterprises with a total capacity of 17.82 million mt. According to the survey results, most enterprises maintained normal production during the National Day holiday.....

Last week, on April 25th, the UK government made a significant announcement regarding the Deposit Return Scheme (DRS) for drinks containers.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened at 130,850 yuan/mt, and closed at 132,590 yuan/mt, up 990 yuan/mt.

DMC prices in the online shopping mall of Shandong-based plants opened at 15,500 yuan/mt this week, down 300 yuan/mt WoW. Offers from leading DMC plants were 15,200 yuan/mt this week, down 1,300 yuan/mt, while those from other plants were 15,300 yuan/mt. Mainstream transaction prices dipped by 400 yuan/mt WoW. 

This resource update can be reflected in the company's valuation and potentially change the coming-up acquisition landscape.

On January 29, SMM understood that as the order signing in the February polysilicon market continued, a domestic polysilicon company signed a large-quantity order for February at the end of last Friday. The actual order price rose to 72 yuan/kg. The actual contract price of polysilicon this month rose.